The Economy

[beej]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-york-feds-empire-state-index-plunges-in-january-to-lowest-level-since-pandemic-56db0554

The numbers: A survey of business conditions in the New York region sank in January to the lowest level since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, perhaps a sign of trouble brewing for the U.S. economy.

The New York Federal Reserve's Empire State business-conditions index, a gauge of manufacturing activity, plunged 29.2 points to negative 43.7, the regional Fed bank said Tuesday.

It's the second-lowest reading ever. The biggest drop took place in the depths of the pandemic, in May 2020.

Economists had expected a negative-4 reading, according to a survey by the Wall Street Journal. Any number below zero indicates deteriorating conditions.

Over the past two months, the index has plummeted 58.2 points, largely because of a decline in new orders. Orders provide an indication of future business activity.

The latest reading is even lower than at any time during the severe 2007-09 recession.

Yet big declines, historically. in the Empire State index tend to be short-lived.

Big picture: The surprise decline adds doubts about the U.S. manufacturing sector, which has been struggling over the past year as interest rates have risen. The key national ISM factory index shows the sector has contracted for 14 straight months.

The negative results will put more focus on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index, which is set to be released Thursday. The ISM factory index will be released on Feb. 1.

[YoDoug]

According to Biden the economy is not bad, it's just that the MSM doesn't know how to accurately report on the economy.

[CNCAppsJames]

Interest rates have a tremendous amount of influence over the capital expenditure process.

When companies fail to invest in capital expenditures it means they are not growing. When they are not growing it means output is stagnant. When output is stagnant it means it's not keeping up with inflation. When it's not keeping up with inflation...

[RobertELee]

Interest rates have a tremendous amount of influence over the capital expenditure process.

That's one of the main reasons my wife and I aren't pulling the trigger on a resort that's for sale in Northern MN that we have our eye on. And the uncertainty of the upcoming economy.

[Del.]

According to Biden the economy is not bad, it's just that the MSM doesn't know how to accurately report on the economy.

That's from a man who is so far removed from reality.

[Incogneeto]

  

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/white-house-dodges-question-about-biden-s-surprise-over-6-smoothie-in-pennsylvania-joking-around/ar-AA1n8V0h?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=1c3036a3a33a45648c6761e13f945be0&ei=45

[Jeff]

According to Biden the economy is not bad, it's just that the MSM doesn't know how to accurately report on the economy.

The stupid, annoying as fuck, WH Press Secretary always says that the economy is doing great!

There isn't a person on this planet that truly believes that.

[Shazam/TPP]

now Jeff, there is one person on this forum that believe that 

[RobertELee]

JP Morgan CEO

[CNCAppsJames]

now Jeff, there is one person on this forum that believe that 

There IS, and the only cogent (though idiotic) statement) he's managed to say is "The US Constitution" and "Webster's Dictionary 1st Edition are, and I quote "fringe documents".

[gcode]

Interest rates have a tremendous amount of influence over the capital expenditure process.

On the bright side, high interest rates have stopped a bunch of Biden's Green Energy boondoggles
dead in their tracks.
On the dark side, many businesses have scaled back or cancelled expansion plans and
8% auto loans make buying new/used cars very painful.
They are also crushing the real estate markets.
There are several homes for sale in my neighborhood that have been languishing on the market for 6 months or more.
Homes in my area are usually sold before the real estate agent gets the sign hammered into the lawn.
These 2 particular homes were bought by speculators for a quick flip and I'm enjoying watching their greed bite them in the ass.

The commercial office building market is in for an epic collapse.
Add up blue cities turning into 3rd world ghettos, business fleeing high taxes and more people working
from home, commercial occupancy rates are unsustainable in many markets.
As Sarah Connor said, "A storm is coming."
 

[gcode]

Interest rates have a tremendous amount of influence over the capital expenditure process.

I hadn't though of it till I read this comment, but I'll bet machine sales is hurting too.
I have noticed some of the local machine salesmen have turned into real pests lately.

[CNCAppsJames]

On the bright side, high interest rates have stopped a bunch of Biden's Green Energy boondoggles
dead in their tracks.
On the dark side, many businesses have scaled back or cancelled expansion plans and
8% auto loans make buying new/used cars very painful.
They are also crushing the real estate markets.
There are several homes for sale in my neighborhood that have been languishing on the market for 6 months or more.
Homes in my area are usually sold before the real estate agent gets the sign hammered into the lawn.
These 2 particular homes were bought by speculators for a quick flip and I'm enjoying watching their greed bite them in the ass.

The commercial office building market is in for an epic collapse.
Add up blue cities turning into 3rd world ghettos, business fleeing high taxes and more people working
from home, commercial occupancy rates are unsustainable in many markets.
As Sarah Connor said, "A storm is coming."

Even the capital expenditure tax incentives have not been enough to entice the fence sitters. The only companies buying equipment are the ones that either have no choice or are buying them outright.

Real Estate... I cannot help but believe I got out at just about the best time. I think had I sold 1 year sooner, I could have got more for our house but most likely would have been hit with capital gains. We were allowed $500k. as a couple. I think we came in just $14k under that threshold. Had we sold last year, we would have most likely been $50-60k or more over. Flippers are a special breed of scum. They are literally hurting families. Fuck those vermin.

Lost Angeles and San Franfecesco are in for an especially destructive commercial real estate crash. You thought they were Gotham now... just wait another year when the bill comes due and their vacancy rates exceed 65%... talk about dystopian scenes... Democrat Pro-Crime policies are gonna come home to roost in ways Democrat voters cannot even begin to imagine. :rof:

If only someone could have warned them this woudl be the outcome. If only.