The real reason for the tariffs

[neurosis]

I guess this is why we have such a difficult time finding employees these days? 


https://archive.ph/1EIde

[CNCAppsJames]

Well... Fuckin' REAL Boomers (born mid-late 40's to early 60's) only beat "factories are for peons" for two generations + so... is it any real surprise?

[beej]

I guess this is why we have such a difficult time finding employees these days? 


https://www.ft.com/content/845917ed-41a5-449f-946f-70263adbaeb7?sharetype=blocked

Wow! That is actually a very telling graph. but not in the way you are thinking. If 20% of the population thinks they would have it better if they were working in a factory, imagine what their jobs are like right now. maybe working part time in convenience stores, or dollar general, etc. Also, a lot of people that work in factories, probably wish there were more factories to choose from which would make them likely to vote that the US needs more manufacturing but not vote that a factory job would make their life better, because they are already in one.  But if the US could pull that entire 20% group out of the poverty that they are in to some kind of manufacturing facility, that could really make a big difference in those people's lives and would be a huge boon for the country as a whole.

[Jeff]

The thing that irks me is that the general public think that only factories do manufacturing.
They have a skewed idea of what an actual factory is, I'm willing to bet they think it's something like it was in 1930 or something like a Ford/GM plant.
They have no clue what a machine shop is, or just how many of them there are, AND don't know that machine shops manufacture a pretty wide range of products.

[neurosis]

Wow! That is actually a very telling graph. but not in the way you are thinking. If 20% of the population thinks they would have it better if they were working in a factory, imagine what their jobs are like right now.

If the same people are answering both questions, then the poll is telling me exactly what I think it's telling me.

I think that Jeff makes a good point in that I doubt that many people understand what working in a "factory" really means. 

Anecdotal experience tells me that it's getting more difficult to find people who want to work in a machine shop. When we *are* able, nobody wants to set up or run machines, deburr parts, etc. They want to know how they can be fast tracked to a desk job. Programming, or in some cases, QC.

That may have somethign to do with James point?  "Well... Fuckin' REAL Boomers (born mid-late 40's to early 60's) only beat "factories are for peons" for two generations + so... is it any real surprise? "



The article that the chart comes from in an interesting read as well. Would we really be better off trying to return to manufacturing?

I thought that Tim Cooks explanation of why they manufacture in China vs the US was interesting as well.

[beej]

If the same people are answering both questions, then the poll is telling me exactly what I think it's telling me.

I think that Jeff makes a good point in that I doubt that many people understand what working in a "factory" really means. 

Anecdotal experience tells me that it's getting more difficult to find people who want to work in a machine shop. When we *are* able, nobody wants to set up or run machines, deburr parts, etc. They want to know how they can be fast tracked to a desk job. Programming, or in some cases, QC.

That may have somethign to do with James point?  "Well... Fuckin' REAL Boomers (born mid-late 40's to early 60's) only beat "factories are for peons" for two generations + so... is it any real surprise? "



The article that the chart comes from in an interesting read as well. Would we really be better off trying to return to manufacturing?

I thought that Tim Cooks explanation of why they manufacture in China vs the US was interesting as well.

If they had asked me those questions, I would have said that I agreed that the US needs more manufacturing. And I also would not have said that working in a factory would make my life better. that doesn't mean that I don't like the manufacturing trade and it also doesn't mean that I think that other people beside me should do manufacturing. I DO manufacturing. It simply means that I agree with the first principle and I'm already doing the 2nd principle.

If that graph wanted to show an accurate depiction it should show a third column that asks the people who replied in the affirmative to question 1 do you currently work in manufacturing or construction trades

for that matter, it doesn't even tell what percentage of the people responding are retired. A retired person might easily answer yes to the first question and no to the 2nd as well.

But to further my point, 20% of the respondents said they would be better off working in a factory. there are 260 million adults in the US.  52 Million people say their life would be better if they had a factory job. I think that it is completely sensical for a majority of the US to say that it would be better if the US had more manufacturing for those 52 million people who desire it.

[neurosis]

for that matter, it doesn't even tell what percentage of the people responding are retired. A retired person might easily answer yes to the first question and no to the 2nd as well.

I DO manufacturing. It simply means that I agree with the first principle and I'm already doing the 2nd principle.

This has the "I don't like what this is telling me so I'm going to try to rationalize away the results" feel to it. But fair enough. 

I looked through the Cato survey to see what their methodology was. They didn't mention anything about employment or retirement, so.. 

[Jeff]

Well... Fuckin' REAL Boomers (born mid-late 40's to early 60's) only beat "factories are for peons" for two generations + so... is it any real surprise?

They pushed the "you won't amount to anything without a college degree" agenda.
When I graduated in '87, you were looked down upon for going directly into skilled trades and skipping college. Our school counselor heavily suggested college, but it was mainly my classmates and teachers that thought being in skilled trades was for losers.
Meanwhile everyone that went to college got an engineering degree and most of them never used it.
Came out with student loans as a burden and went back to live with their parents.

[beej]

This has the "I don't like what this is telling me so I'm going to try to rationalize away the results" feel to it. But fair enough. 

I looked through the Cato survey to see what their methodology was. They didn't mention anything about employment or retirement, so.. 

I get what you are saying about rationalizing, but I could say the same for the people who presented the graph in the first place. They are using the graph to tell us why the current administration has a dumb policy of wanting to bring manufacturing back to the US. I just see their data and draw different conclusions from it. If I could, I would ask the person from the Financial Times what it would look like to them if those 52 million people who desire better jobs, got them.

[Brian]

I guess this is why we have such a difficult time finding employees these days? 


https://archive.ph/1EIde

Do you think potential employees would change their minds after they get a tour of your shop, or are you saying that perhaps they don't apply in the first place because they "already know" they don't want to work in a "factory?" Any idea?

[neurosis]

I just see their data and draw different conclusions from it. If I could, I would ask the person from the Financial Times what it would look like to them if those 52 million people who desire better jobs, got them.

The survey was done by Cato, not TFT. If I had posted that graph straight from Cato, would you have worked so hard to discredit the results, even though they weren't trying to make any points when they did the survey?

I know that TFT does have a point, but is their point invalid?

If I were to have taken that survey, I would have had a difficult time answering question #1 because honestly, other than the argument of national security, I'm not sure that we would be better off if manufacturing came back to the US. I don't know how many jobs would be created vs how much of manufacturing would be automated? Would the jobs left be high, or low paying jobs? 

I would have answered no to #2 because even though I do work in manufacturing, and it was great when I came in to the trade, I'm not sure that I would see it as a great career move in 2025. Average machinists in the Seattle area barely make enough to scrape by and god forbid you have any unforeseen medical issues.

I've been programming since I was 22 so I've made a good living for myself, but not everyone lands a programming job in this trade.

I don't know much about other areas of manufacturing or other locations, so my opinion may be skewed based on location and cost of living. 

[Brian]

Going back to my rant from a couple of weeks back, my gut tells me that polls might be heavily skewed one way or another by seemingly simple changes in wording! "Factory" might sound like something out of Dickens-era England, while "high-tech manufacturing" could be perceived much more favorably!

I've spent a lot of time pondering this sort of thing, as I was one of two kids in our HS graduating class that didn't go straight to college (this was a hard-core college prep HS...not too many dummies there!). The bias against the sort of work we do is real as far as I can tell, and while it's rooted in some truth, there is much misunderstanding there, as well.

[neurosis]

Do you think potential employees would change their minds after they get a tour of your shop, or are you saying that perhaps they don't apply in the first place because they "already know" they don't want to work in a "factory?" Any idea?

That, I'm not sure.

Getting someone in the door is only the first hurdle.  The first time someone has to spend an 8-hour shift on the deburr bench, broach, cleaning a machine, can sometimes be the last time we ever see them. 

Finding experienced people is also getting to be more difficult.

[neurosis]

Here is something we should have seen coming.

China orders airlines to suspend Boeing jet deliveries amid trade war

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/china-orders-halts-boeing-jet-deliveries-bloomberg-news-reports-2025-04-15/


"China's top three airlines - Air China (601111.SS), opens new tab, China Eastern Airlines (600115.SS), opens new tab and China Southern Airlines (600029.SS), opens new tab - had planned to take delivery of 45, 53 and 81 Boeing planes, respectively, between 2025 and 2027.
Beijing has also asked that Chinese carriers halt purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from U.S. companies, the Bloomberg report said."

[SuperHoneyBadger]

This is who will be cleaning machines and deburring soon. Android automation is the plan at the top to bring manufacturing back stateside. Tesla has had top half robots for awhile, when this nightmarish beast can balance and walk and leverage AI to make decisions and have 'knowledge' the paradigm of work will genuinely shift. Soft singularity.