Tariff purchases?

[gcode]

What would the quantities need to be here in the states to have any chance of profit? Or better yet regulations to allow such nice castings

Zero.. the entire manufacturing process is government subsidized, from material, power, machine purchases etc.
There are similar subsidies for the perishable suppliers. Add in bootleg CAD/CAM software and wages 10% of US pay and it is impossible to compete.
A friend who built small aircraft electric connectors lost a life long customer to China years ago.
He could not buy the aluminum bar stock for what the Chinese manufacturer sold the finished part.

[Newbeeee™]

Zero.. the entire manufacturing process is government subsidized, from material, power, machine purchases etc.
There are similar subsidies for the perishable suppliers. Add in bootleg CAD/CAM software and wages 10% of US pay and it is impossible to compete.
A friend who built small aircraft electric connectors lost a life long customer to China years ago.
He could not buy the aluminum bar stock for what the Chinese manufacturer sold the finished part.

Back in the day....CW UK were instructed to look at Poland and Chyna....the reason why we kept the work was because of our 100% OTD and 0 scrap (ie zero risk) but also Chyna could not process the treatments (alodine/nickel etc + paint) and both them and Poland wanted 5 year contracts and to deliver 1x year of sales Jan 1st each year. And invoice there and then.
We were on 60 days month end....so 90 days as a lot of our deliveries were 1st week of the month....
Luckily....our product was low-volume averaging 25 parts per month, which was also a big factor.
I did say that if the higher qty's were to go abroad, we would revise all the rest of our prices to, knowing that would have given a huge headache to them.

[ghuns]

Zero.. the entire manufacturing process is government subsidized, from material, power, machine purchases etc.
There are similar subsidies for the perishable suppliers. Add in bootleg CAD/CAM software and wages 10% of US pay and it is impossible to compete.
A friend who built small aircraft electric connectors lost a life long customer to China years ago.
He could not buy the aluminum bar stock for what the Chinese manufacturer sold the finished part.

When we first started dealing with China, it was for mold bases. On ones under 10K pounds, we could buy and air ship a finish machined mold base from China for less than it would cost us to buy the steel, a mix of 1045 and 4140.

Their machining work was as good or better than what we could produce.

[beej]

Did you read the story? Can you refute any of the info presented? Should I tell you about the 20% reduction of orders due directly to the tariffs, and the resulting furloughs and layoffs that are happening at the plant where I work?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-remain-is-stable-range-labor-market-seen-frozen-in-place-3cc1548c?mod=home_ln

[Bucky Cornstarch]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-remain-is-stable-range-labor-market-seen-frozen-in-place-3cc1548c?mod=home_ln

Thank you for the additional data points.

But Ellen Zentner, chief economist strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said she doesn't think the low levels of jobless claims mena the economy is in the clear.

At the start of the year, the labor market was strong. Now there is a lack of churn, she said. People aren't leaving their jobs and companies are not hiring or firing, she said.

With the economy still growing, it means that the growth of the labor market is not keeping up and there could be weakness ahead.

[Smit]

From one of the links that was in the article Beej linked:

Opinion: 'Bond king' Jeffrey Gundlach predicts our next financial hangover — and it's sobering

But here's the catch: Tariffs also act as a stealth tax that's as sneaky and regressive as any sales tax slapped on beer or cigarettes. And who bears the brunt? It's the 65% of Americans without a college degree — folks whose jobs were exported overseas. Gundlach admitted tariffs might help temporarily bring some manufacturing jobs home, but they'll also raise prices on the cars and other goods these workers are supposed to build. It's economic irony at its cruelest — like robbing Peter to pay Paul, then charging Paul twice as much.

[beej]

From one of the links that was in the article Beej linked:

Opinion: 'Bond king' Jeffrey Gundlach predicts our next financial hangover — and it's sobering

I tend to agree with that assessment for as much as I understand the mechanisms of economics, which I admit, has so many moving parts that it turns into a foggy haze in my feeble brain. At the same time, and I know this is off topic, but it has always seemed to me like raising minimum wage does exactly the same thing and democrats are always in favor of it.

It gives a boost in pay, but then it also raises prices on the things that a minimum wage earner buys, because business owners are not just going to eat that new expense. So, while I get that this will seem like a swerve to avoid talking about tariffs, it's not meant to be. I'm trying to understand the bigger picture of why democrats think one way here, and a different way there.

In my mind, maybe I'm wrong, but a business expense is a business expense is a business expense and all expenses, if the company wants to make money, will get passed to the consumer. So right now democrats don't want the tariffs because it's an expense that will get paid by the consumer, but they want to raise corporate tax loopholes, and say that companies will somehow eat that expense. They pushed in the recent past for minimum wage hikes, which gave workers raises but at the same time raised prices significantly at the retail\fastfood level.

I'd like to follow the logic, but I don't see it.

[neurosis]

Well, where do we go from here?

China tells US to 'cancel all unilateral tariffs' if it wants talks
Beijing says claims it is nearing a deal with Washington to resolve the trade war are 'fake news'


https://archive.ph/oLi3V


"Beijing has called on the US to "completely cancel all unilateral tariff measures" if it wants trade talks, in some of China's strongest comments yet on the impasse between the world's two economic superpowers.

Beijing on Thursday also said there were "currently no economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States", despite recent signs of softening on dispute from Washington. US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent has said in recent days that the trade war is "not sustainable" and "there would have to be a de-escalation by both sides".

"The unilateral tariff measures were initiated by the US," said He Yadong, a Chinese commerce ministry spokesperson. "If the US truly wants to solve the problem, it should . . . completely cancel all unilateral tariff measures against China and find a way to resolve differences through equal dialogue.""

[beej]

Well, where do we go from here?

China tells US to 'cancel all unilateral tariffs' if it wants talks
Beijing says claims it is nearing a deal with Washington to resolve the trade war are 'fake news'


https://archive.ph/oLi3V


"Beijing has called on the US to "completely cancel all unilateral tariff measures" if it wants trade talks, in some of China's strongest comments yet on the impasse between the world's two economic superpowers.

Beijing on Thursday also said there were "currently no economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States", despite recent signs of softening on dispute from Washington. US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent has said in recent days that the trade war is "not sustainable" and "there would have to be a de-escalation by both sides".

"The unilateral tariff measures were initiated by the US," said He Yadong, a Chinese commerce ministry spokesperson. "If the US truly wants to solve the problem, it should . . . completely cancel all unilateral tariff measures against China and find a way to resolve differences through equal dialogue.""

Let 'em be and focus on India.

[Smit]

Well, where do we go from here?

China tells US to 'cancel all unilateral tariffs' if it wants talks
Beijing says claims it is nearing a deal with Washington to resolve the trade war are 'fake news'

Now why the hell does China want to act that way?

Three million people have watched a viral clip of Trump's remarks at yesterday's National Republican Congressional Committee President's Dinner, where he said, "I'm telling you these countries are calling us up kissing my ass." The crowd laughed.

[neurosis]

I'd like to follow the logic, but I don't see it.

I look at these things a lot like you do. I think that it's the 'break it down in to its simplest terms' approach to figuring out the logic when it's probably a lot more complicated.

I remember local Republicans warning that if the minimum wage was raised to $15 an hour in Seattle, a McDonalds burger was going to cost $12 when the reality was, the prices of most of these things didn't go up much at all. It did, however, cause low earning job employers to reduce the number of hours and employees, so I don't know that the tradeoff was worth it? People who were able to keep those jobs were able to afford groceries now, but there were less of those jobs and in some cases, fewer hours so you would have to hold down two jobs for full-time pay.

I don't think that is an accurate comparison to tariffs in the same way that Corprate/business tax isn't an accurate comparison.  Business taxes are more complicated and can be avoided in some cases through re-investment, etc. There is no way to avoid a tariff "tax". It's a 1:1 cost increase. 

You can tell me if I'm out in left field here. I can take it. 

[Tim Johnson]

When we first started dealing with China, it was for mold bases. On ones under 10K pounds, we could buy and air ship a finish machined mold base from China for less than it would cost us to buy the steel, a mix of 1045 and 4140.

Their machining work was as good or better than what we could produce.

We have sent work to china. The larger parts were about the same as what we did/do but the smaller parts were below our expectations.

[gcode]

China can't go it alone

A long article, but worth your time

[neurosis]

Who knows how all of this tariff shit is going to turn out. I thought this was interesting. I'm sure that at least a couple of people on here know about Gamers Nexus.