Fleeing the PRK

[gcode]

I'm not the only one

Valero just paid a $1.1 billion breakup fee to leave California.

When a company is willing to absorb a billion-dollar write-down just to exit a market, that's not a routine business decision. It's a signal that the operating environment no longer works.

Valero is shutting down its Benicia refinery by April 2026 rather than continue operating under California's current regulatory and economic framework.

That facility processes roughly 145,000 barrels per day, about 8.6% of California's gasoline supply. Around 400 jobs are lost. Local tax revenue takes a direct hit.

With Phillips 66 also exiting, nearly 10% of California's in-state refining capacity is coming offline in a short window.

The analysts are already modeling the consequences.

Economists at University of California, Davis estimate a $1.20 per gallon increase by summer 2026. Translation: your usual 15 gallon fill up goes from $70 to $95+.

Fun.

Stanford Energy also warns that removing this much capacity materially increases the risk of severe supply disruptions and extreme price spikes.

Here's the core issue:

We are taking essential energy infrastructure offline while demand is still growing.

AI data centers, electrification, and industrial reshoring are increasing energy intensity, not reducing it. The idea that demand is about to disappear is a fantasy.

When supply is forced offline in a high-demand system, the outcome is not transition. It is volatility.

And consumers ultimately pay the difference.

[gcode]

The money shot

The analysts are already modeling the consequences.

Economists at University of California, Davis estimate a $1.20 per gallon increase by summer 2026. Translation: your usual 15 gallon fill up goes from $70 to $95+.

Happily, Mrs Gcode and I will be long gone by then.

[jstell]

That's okay, everyone is going to drive electric cars now.
I'm sure the grid has extra capacity to charge another 40 million cars a day. 

[Smit]

Where are you going?

Oklahoma or Arkansas would be a good fit for you.

[Brian]

Man, these threads always have that jilted lover thing going on IMHO.

I get it-plenty of things need work in CA (and pretty much all of the USA while we're at it), and the COL is too high for most all of us here, but does it ever get old whingeing about one's exes?

[Rstewart]

Yeah, I heard they aren't even selling the refinery, just abandoning it.
Crazy IMHO

[Brian]

Yeah, I heard they aren't even selling the refinery, just abandoning it.
Crazy IMHO

If someone gave you a machine that you couldn't make money with, would you take it? If the juice wasn't worth the squeeze, would you *pay* for it?

Is this situation likely any different?

And to be clear-I don't enjoy expensive gas (or energy, generally) any more than the next guy, but this is all "above my pay grade" as they say.

[mowens]

That's okay, everyone is going to drive electric cars now.
I'm sure the grid has extra capacity to charge another 40 million cars a day. 

I rented a car over the weekend; it was a Toyota Camry hybrid. I really liked it.

[Bucky Cornstarch]

I rented a car over the weekend; it was a Toyota Camry hybrid. I really liked it.

We have a Toyota Highlander Hybrid and it is fantastic.

[CADCAM396]

Man, these threads always have that jilted lover thing going on IMHO.

I get it-plenty of things need work in CA (and pretty much all of the USA while we're at it), and the COL is too high for most all of us here, but does it ever get old whingeing about one's exes?

left Cali in 1989 and never looked back. it was going down hill then. unfortunately the nutjobs there followed me and are now californicating Washington. (ok I think they done did it already).
whats a guy to do?

[Bucky Cornstarch]

left Cali in 1989 and never looked back. it was going down hill then. unfortunately the nutjobs there followed me and are now californicating Washington. (ok I think they done did it already).
whats a guy to do?

So it was okay for you to do it but everyone else after you is a nutjob?

You sound like every other pro-ICE/anti-immigration "nutjob" out there.

[Newbeeee™]

So it was okay for you to do it but everyone else after you is a nutjob?

You sound like every other pro-ICE/anti-immigration "nutjob" out there.

Well....perhaps, and here's a thought....possibly....CADCAM396 has "very little"* to do with all the Goobermint and infrastructure changes?


*"very little" actually meaning less than fukall, because he "probably" is a CADCAM programmer working in manufacturing and NOT "working"** in Goobermint....

**"working" in Goobermint... well, yeah

[CADCAM396]

So it was okay for you to do it but everyone else after you is a nutjob?

You sound like every other pro-ICE/anti-immigration "nutjob" out there.

I will take that as a compliment, thank you Sir

[CNCAppsJames]

Anti-Business economic policies have negative consequences. That's the start and end of it. A number of Democrat Assembly members have cheered the companies leaving. "Good! We don't need you here!" and the like. Ignorance is bliss I guess.

There's been nearly 500 medium to large companies that have left since 2018.

May as well cheer for the plane you're on to crash. 

 

[jstell]

May as well cheer for the plane you're on to crash. 

I'm not sure this is a good analogy.  As the joke of the nervous passenger asking the flight attendant "How often do these things crash?" (as told here by Brian some months ago)  The reply: "Only once."
But your metaphorical plane keeps crashing, over, and over, and...