Stock market

[Dan_AKA_ROY23]

I was trying to be contrarian away from the mega caps and DCA'ing into small cap value fund (AVUV). It's getting slaughtered pretty good, but I haven't gone in heavy. More of a plan to dribble over several years.
 

Good strategy. Nibble don't bite.

Small caps getting slaughtered (painful). RWM marching higher (inverse Russell 2000 ETF)

[Dan_AKA_ROY23]

This guy supports shock and awe tariffs. Andy Beal has cred. Good read.

[mkd]

This guy supports shock and awe tariffs. Andy Beal has cred. Good read.

Good stuff; previous path is unsustainable.
 Shocked that market watch actually published a pro-trump policy piece

[mkd]

V-shaped recovery underway 🎉🎉

.
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Until tomorrow... When the tariffs go into effect

[champshire]

Sitting on the sidelines this week until tomorrow plays out....

[Dan_AKA_ROY23]

Today's price action very discouraging. Huge gain at open now mostly flat.

The selling is probably only half done (if we are fortunate).

I'm not willing to lose another 20%, already down 10%. But no more. The wealth preserving defensive team is on the field. Sell into rips, don't trust dips except for S/T trading strategies.

[Smit]

Today's price action very discouraging. Huge gain at open now mostly flat.

Not as discouraging as yesterday, and the day before, and the day before, etc.

[Del.]

You never truly lose until you sell.

[Dan_AKA_ROY23]

Let's examine the DOW. All time high was at 45K. Now at 38K. It can't go down further from here. "Back up the truck".

^Those are fools. It CAN go further down.

Multiply your portfolio by .33 (33%). Are you comfortable losing that?

The financial advisors are telling their clients to "stay the course". They charge them an assets under management fee, usually around 1%. But if you go to cash, they don't get paid. Do you trust they are looking out for your best interest?

When you are very defensive and lose a fraction of the indexes, as the market further corrects - you gain purchasing power. You are gaining strength (despite losing value).

Hedge your main equity funds with inverse ETF's (DOG, SH, PSQ, RWM...I don't trade any other inverse). Raise cash levels quickly! VUSB and BIL are very low risk and pay nearly 5% interest. Add bond exposure but don't go crazy as bonds are also a risk asset - which we want to avoid. 20 to 30% (high end0 exposure in AGG and IEF, for example.

50% safe cash. Around 25% bonds. The other 25% trade (don't stay married to any stock). This 25% includes the inverse ETF's I mentioned (or you can short the actual long ETF's....so for tax purposes, don't sell DIA (long Dow Jones ETF) but hedge with DOG (short Dow Jones). So, if 100K in DIA, consider 50K in DOG.

Buy and hold strategy is dangerous in a bear market. I've always said that. "We're buy and holders for life!!!" (Right, until stocks sh!t the bed)

[mkd]

That's really great analysis and strategies, Dan.
 The market is moving on the slightest glimmer of policy change.
 Gonna feel pretty foolish selling everything if the tariff policy turns out to just be temporary leverage. Trump has been talking about tariffs for 35 years publicly so the foolish part might be not believing him.
I'm a fence sitter on this one.

Been holding too much cash since 2023 crash that never happened. I was figuring there would be a trump dip and planned to complete equity portfolio on the dip.
 I'm not seeing any relief in sight this week.

[mkd]

"biggest intra-day reversal in history"

[gcode]

"biggest intra-day reversal in history"

in other words, a suckers rally

[Smit]

Trump has been talking about tariffs for 35 years publicly so the foolish part might be not believing him.

Trumpers before Trump 2.0: He's not going to do all the crazy shit he says he's gonna do. That's just a negotiating tactic.

Trumpers after Trump 2.0: The foolish part is not believing him.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1909241889317925228

https://twitter.com/i/status/1908260763044577343

Then pivot to he's crashing the markets on purpose.

You can't make this shit up.

[neurosis]

I remember cracking a joke a few weeks in about Trump saying "When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on Day One". I think it was James who said "give him a few months".

I'm starting to think that bringing prices down, for groceries or anything else, might not be a priority. 

Then again, I have no idea what his game plan is. All I can do is guess.    

[Smit]

Then again, I have no idea what his game plan is. All I can do is guess.    

It's 5D chess man. Unless you're a fucken super genius there's no way to understand it.