Microsoft Research on AI Job Replacement: CNC Programming 7th Most Likely

[SuperHoneyBadger]

New study of 200k Copilot users indicates that AI can/is performing 50% of job related tasks CNC programmers are asking of it successfully. Also claiming adoption numbers in the US is 40% of all phone/computer users, drastically outpacing the early adoption of the PC or the Internet. Further reinforcing one of my favourite TV quotes: "Computers aren't the thing, they're the thing that gets us to the thing."

Working with AI: Measuring the Occupational Implications of Generative AI
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2507.07935

[YoDoug]

If you want fun afternoon go post this PM forum and watch the comments roll in. If you are programmer of any type and don't think AI will be able to do your job in a number of years you are either completely ignorant of how capable and how fast AI is growing, or you are sticking your head in the sand.

I had a thought yesterday, Maybe it's time to stop paying $$$$ of dollars a years for post support/maintenance and just work with AI for post config and editing. After, posts are just another programming language. There is no reason AI can't figure it out.

[neurosis]

I had a thought yesterday, Maybe it's time to stop paying $$$$ of dollars a years for post support/maintenance and just work with AI for post config and editing. After, posts are just another programming language. There is no reason AI can't figure it out.

Unfortunately, with a company like TopSolid, they make you purchase the post module and make you pay for training just for the ability to do your own post editing. For a large enough shop that would be worth it.

I wonder how long small shops are going to be around in this environment.

[SuperHoneyBadger]

I'm certain that many functions will be automated by gen AI, they will still need a guiding hand though, IMO. I can't see the endgame of full on AI programming - a shop with no programming dept can upload a part file, a few parameters and is given good gcode. There are still too many variables, and too many companies/interfaces involved. Programming, DNC, machine control, machine builders, tool vendors, holder vendors. It just seems like a massive undertaking. Though the guy who figures it out will be a trillionaire.

The only way I think a system could perform the tasks from scratch would be to emulate the relationship between the programmer, operator, machine, and model. Sort of like Vericut Force Optimizer, but in tandem with the programming choices, tool choices, material, workholding, everything. If everything could be simulated and measured for chatter, finish, tolerances, and fed back into the programming AI, then yea. But that's gonna require a lot of industry partners to collaborate on a very complex system. Or it will only work in one offs like your maniacal homebrew robocells.

[SuperHoneyBadger]

I wonder how long small shops are going to be around in this environment.

Well from what I hear from the owners at my shop, and from discussions here, there are conglomerates and corps that are very interested in total consolidation of manufacturing. Even locally for us, there is a group of 5 guys that seem to be buying up shops whenever they can, they're just business guys, they dont know jack about making parts. They are doing what the Vet clinic and dental clinics are seeing as well: looking for older/disillusioned owners who want to sell, and scooping up shops.

[gcode]

Even locally for us, there is a group of 5 guys that seem to be buying up shops whenever they can, they're just business guys, they dont know jack about making parts.

That's been going on for a 30 years around here.
Successful shops bought out by investors and merged into an investment portfolio.
Offhand, I can't think of any that have been successful. They usually bounce from one investor group to the next
loosing value with every move till they eventually disappear into bankruptcy.

[CNCAppsJames]

I had a thought yesterday, Maybe it's time to stop paying $$$$ of dollars a years for post support/maintenance and just work with AI for post config and editing. After, posts are just another programming language. There is no reason AI can't figure it out.

It will figure it out eventually. That is a forgone conclusion. That said, as of this moment, it's understanding is at about the kindergarten level... maybe. With 5-Axis and all the functions that go along with it... it's hard, lots of variables. LOTS.

I got an e-mail from a post developer a few weeks back asking about G54.2 and G54.4 and using them together. He had a snippet of what appeared to be a post from a forum and technical information about the two that REALLY "sounded" like me. So much so and it loosely resembled an online topic from not too long ago. I asked him what Forum that came from because I needed to go back and correct something. He then confessed it was from an AI session.

My biggest gripe with AI is the inaccuracy. I'm sure it does much better with programming languages. But my inquiriies and the results have been pretty much on the abysmal side. When I can open a PDF, search for a term and get an answer, an answer who's accuracy is going to pretty much be an "A" on the reliability scale, as opposed to opening an AI session having a 20 minute argument with a fuckin' machine over what's right... mind you we are BOTH looking at the same PDF. One single PDF so as to limit the wrong answers. AI gets a D+.

It's coming for a big chunk of my job... no question. For the moment, I'm the expert and AI doesn't know shit from shinola. For the moment....

[Newbeeee™]

very interested in total consolidation of manufacturing.

#MomCorp

[mkd]

Microsoft quarterly earnings were eye popping with the recent axing of 9500 employees.
 The AI thing seems to be working. Artificial intelligence or Actual Indians, it's not 💯 clear. 

[Zoffen]

Ready and waiting to be acquired for millions of dollars. Gimme money.

[Zoffen]

It's coming for a big chunk of my job... no question. For the moment, I'm the expert and AI doesn't know shit from shinola. For the moment....

You probably have enough publicly available forum posts to be able to make a Fanuc Application Engineer chaptbot in the style of CNCAppsJames. Be afraid!

[Incogneeto]

You probably have enough publicly available forum posts to be able to make a Fanuc Application Engineer chaptbot in the style of CNCAppsJames. Be afraid!

That is Bovine Excrement!!!

[mkd]

You probably have enough publicly available forum posts to be able to make a Fanuc Application Engineer chaptbot in the style of CNCAppsJames. Be afraid!

Funny you should mention that.
 James has a cute story to tell on that subject   

[Incogneeto]

Funny you should mention that.
 James has a cute story to tell on that subject   

You James is Cute??

[CNCAppsJames]

You James is Cute??

I've got a face for radio.