Interesting AI-related post: Paul Krugman interview "Talking With Paul Kedrosky"

[Brian]

https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/talking-with-paul-kedrosky?redirect=app-store-no-desktop&inbox=true&source=post-email-continue-reading-button&cutoffElementIndex=94&triedRedirect=true&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

"....I just did yesterday or the day before—there was a new OECD report on the US showing that in the first half of 2025, the US was arguably in a recession absent AI CapEx spending which was scarcely a ripple in terms of people saying, "hello, we're running a giant private sector stimulus program that's keeping the US out of recession," and yet no one's talking about it in those terms.

The analogy I make all the time is that when you don't understand how large AI CapEx is and how consequential it is, you have the causality of policy all messed up. You don't understand that the thing that's actually driving the US economy is not the thing you think it is. I often make the joke that it's like my dog who barks when the mailman comes to the house, and then the mailman leaves and he thinks it's because of the barking. It's like, "no, the mailman leaves every day."

[neurosis]

The analogy I make all the time is that when you don't understand how large AI CapEx is and how consequential it is, you have the causality of policy all messed up. You don't understand that the thing that's actually driving the US economy is not the thing you think it is.

[Brian]

I think you meant to say that "the tail wags the dog!"

[neurosis]

I think you meant to say that "the tail wags the dog!"

lol.  that wasn't what I meant, but thanks for giving me that out.

I'll probably watch the video version of that as usual.

I have a hard time listening to Krugman because his voice is like a wet, soft, handshake.

[CNCAppsJames]

I have a hard time listening to Krugman because his voice is like a wet, soft, handshake.

That's the best explanation I've ever seen. 

I listen to people I disagree with all the time... when they are not unpleasant sounding. 

[Brian]

I listen to people I disagree with all the time... when they are not unpleasant sounding. 

I don't know exactly why, but I greatly prefer reading over listening to podcasts.....maybe it's the extra overlay of emotion that distracts from the raw information. I don't need anybody to tell me how I ought to feel about something-"just the facts, ma'am."

[neurosis]

That's the best explanation I've ever seen.

I listen to people I disagree with all the time... when they are not unpleasant sounding.

I listen to Krugman more than I'll admit. Mostly because of Brian.  I'd say the same about Ezra.  In some twisted irony, I started listening to Ezra because of @beej 

[Zoffen]

Everywhere you look, its just self-licking ice cream cones all the way down. The turtles went extinct long ago.