“China’s Industrial Speedrun”

[Brian]

https://open.substack.com/pub/skandergarroum/p/chinas-industrial-speedrun?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Here's an interesting Substack post. I think I first came across this guy thru something related to the solar/alternative energy industry (I've got an occasional customer in that space), though it isn't his usual Substack channel.

[beej]

The biggest take away that I get from reading this, is that they, overall, have a desire for continued improvement and our politician's modus operandi is to slow down the rate of decline as much as possible while reflecting on our greatness of the past.

[Brian]

The biggest take away that I get from reading this, is that they, overall, have a desire for continued improvement and our politician's modus operandi is to slow down the rate of decline as much as possible while reflecting on our greatness of the past.

Yeah, that's a good way to put it! One approach is forward-looking or aspirational, the other is nostalgic or regressive.

Somehow I'm reminded of this (though I don't offer it as a unifying explanation of it all):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion

More here for those who are interested:

https://www.google.com/search?q=kahneman+loss+aversion&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-us&client=safari&sei=fPM6adWaNPjy0PEP8-CJmAY

[Smit]

I would say the entire U.S. has become complacent. We have become so used to the idea of "American Exceptionalism" that we can't even imagine not being the preeminent power in the world. People think we don't even have to try to be exceptional, we just are. Without trying. It's our right, eh?

If our politicians are not forward looking, whose fault is that? Who voted for them?

Instead of leading the world it seems we're determined to NOT lead the world.

Green energy is a perfect example of that. Jimmy Carter installed solar panels on the White House. Ronald Reagan had them removed. The rest is history.

We should be leading the world in green technology, but instead we left the door open for China to seize one of the big markets of the future while we double down on fossil fuels. Not very forward thinking it seems.

Our companies are driven by short term gains, not building a sustainable future. For example, everybody here knows how difficult it is to find a good, experience machinist. That's not going to be something we can fix in the short term.

The tariff wars we're having right now is another example of how self destructive we are. While we're fighting the whole world for "fair trade", China is expanding their export markets to places we aren't friendly with anymore. It's hard to see those places coming all the way back, even if they would prefer to not deal with China.

China is investing in their country while we are not. I just can't understand how we don't have high speed trains between major cities here.

It seems our country is just not capable of doing great things anymore.

[Bucky Cornstarch]

I would say the entire U.S. has become complacent. We have become so used to the idea of "American Exceptionalism" that we can't even imagine not being the preeminent power in the world. People think we don't even have to try to be exceptional, we just are. Without trying. It's our right, eh?

If our politicians are not forward looking, whose fault is that? Who voted for them?

Instead of leading the world it seems we're determined to NOT lead the world.

Green energy is a perfect example of that. Jimmy Carter installed solar panels on the White House. Ronald Reagan had them removed. The rest is history.

We should be leading the world in green technology, but instead we left the door open for China to seize one of the big markets of the future while we double down on fossil fuels. Not very forward thinking it seems.

Our companies are driven by short term gains, not building a sustainable future. For example, everybody here knows how difficult it is to find a good, experience machinist. That's not going to be something we can fix in the short term.

The tariff wars we're having right now is another example of how self destructive we are. While we're fighting the whole world for "fair trade", China is expanding their export markets to places we aren't friendly with anymore. It's hard to see those places coming all the way back, even if they would prefer to not deal with China.

China is investing in their country while we are not. I just can't understand how we don't have high speed trains between major cities here.

It seems our country is just not capable of doing great things anymore.

Sounds like a bunch of commie BS. If you don't like it, leave.

[Rstewart]

The tariff wars we're having right now is another example of how self destructive we are. While we're fighting the whole world for "fair trade", China is expanding their export markets to places we aren't friendly with anymore. It's hard to see those places coming all the way back, even if they would prefer to not deal with China.

China is investing in their country while we are not. I just can't understand how we don't have high speed trains between major cities here.

Self Destructive?  The tariffs are pretty much working exactly as intended.  If you can channel your inner Economist and give me an example of the downsides based on our market, I may listen, but you won't.

I believe we're heading to a small industrial revolution in the United States. 

US exports are up 6% over the last year and the trade deficit with China has narrowed.

[Rstewart]

Another thing on China IMHO

Say you want to have your widget manufactured there (China).  You send them all your IP or engineering drawings to manufacture.... They immediately copy your design and sell a shitty representative on Aliboobabafukka for a 70% cheaper cost - Cutting you out.
Manufacture a better product here and Don't lose your IP.  Sell at a decent cost for the consumer and you'll make more in the end.

[neurosis]

I believe we're heading to a small industrial revolution in the United States. 

Based on what evidence?

[Smit]

Based on what evidence?

An Orange guy said so.

[Newbeeee™]

Based on what evidence?

ChyNuh is a crap shoot unless you're the likes of Boeing or Lockheed etc - the place is so large, they have areas (city) for different tech. Regions maybe a better description.
The Tier 1's have a big problem as people can get trained up, and then walk across the road to another tier 1, and get a job....
Same as Tijuana - get trained then disappear across the border....
To do business in China, you have to get "partnered" and that involves greasing of palms.
When i got time later i'll tell the story of one of my customers and their commercial product

[Rstewart]

An Orange guy said so.

Your Mom told me


Seriously, has Trump said this?  I haven't heard it if so.  You don't want it to be true, you just want everything to burn under an administration you don't like

[Smit]

Tariffs, working exactly how they're designed to work?

I don't know, maybe. It seems the same thing happened during his first term.

Farmers welcome Trump's $12 billion aid package, say additional relief is needed

Excerpt:

HURON, S.D. — American farmers are welcoming the $12 billion assistance package President Trump announced for them this week, but there's also evidence that his trade policies are a big reason many farmers aren't profitable this year.

Farmers like Kevin Deinert in South Dakota, who opens the hatch of a shiny silver grain bin on his farm that's full of this year's soybean harvest.

"I stored everything I could, so it's full, as you can see," he says. "A little too full."

In recent years, Deinert's bins would be empty by now, his soybeans sold to China, which has been buying about 25 million metric tons annually from the U.S. since 2019.

But this spring, they started buying them from Brazil and other countries instead, in response to President Trump levying tariffs against Chinese exports to the U.S.

The Chinese market evaporated as prices farmers pay for fertilizer and other products they need have been rising sharply due to inflation and tariffs Trump imposed on Canada and other countries that produce them.

[neurosis]

Your Mom told me


Seriously, has Trump said this?  I haven't heard it if so.  You don't want it to be true, you just want everything to burn under an administration you don't like

Yes. He's said it over and over and over and over again. And the only people who have agreed with him are Fox news hosts, and people in his cabinet.


"WASHINGTON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing contracted for the ninth straight month in November, with factories facing slumping orders and higher prices for inputs as the drag from import tariffs persisted."

[Rstewart]

Based on what evidence?

I thought I spelled it out? 

Increasing the costs or tariffs from items produced in other nations.  Spend more importing items, or give a company within America the opportunity to create a profitable business selling products.

Example:
I know some folks that buy aluminum cans by the hundreds of thousands at a time.  One year ago they were getting all of them from Canada at what was assumed a fair price.

Orange man Bad

Now they are getting all of their stock from a producer here in the states for 15% less than they were paying in Canada originally.

[Rstewart]

Yes. He's said it over and over and over and over again. And the only people who have agreed with him are Fox news hosts, and people in his cabinet.

Bro, I'm not glued to the fk'n tv or news like most here.   Fox news is for people that don't leave their recliner