U.S. launches military strikes on Venezuela, Trump says Maduro captured and flow

[TylerBeer]

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Impressed you know how to look up a flight, figured you were sworn off flying because it's not in the constitution.
But you're good at fleeing LOL

[YoDoug]

#NoKings!

[Rstewart]

[CNCAppsJames]

We're going to be treated to some EPIC memes in the coming weeks and months. Can't wait. 

 

[CNCAppsJames]

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This one is still one my favorites.



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[gcode]

Trump, Maduro, and What's Next

The usual suspect have, in fact, gone from "No Kings" to complaining that Trump has somehow violated international law. This is true only to the extent that "international law" means "a wish-fulfillment tool for the Left." Which is its chief use now.

But what Trump did is basically indistinguishable — except for being much swifter and cheaper — than what George H.W. Bush did with Manuel Noriega, the "President" of Panama (not recognized as such by the United States due to election fraud) just as Maduro was the "President" of Venezuela, but not recognized as such by the United States (and other countries) due to election fraud.

Brought to the United States and put on trial, Noriega and his lawyers made the same arguments that Maduro's supporters on the left are making now: Violations of the UN Charter, illegal rendition, head-of-state immunity, etc. None of these convinced the courts and for reasons that are likely to obtain here. Of course one wild card may be the "Trump rule," which is that anything Trump does is judicially suspect, basically because all the best people know Trump is no good. That's stupid, but it would be wrong to entirely discount its power. Jack Goldsmith has more on the legal argument. You can read President Bush's official statement on the Noriega seizure and the reasons therefor here, and the 1989 Office of Legal Counsel opinion on authority for extraterritorial arrests/seizures here.

But that's a stale argument, and unlikely to prove important, particularly as the courts, including the Supreme Court, have kind of embarrassed themselves to date with regard to the conflict with Venezuela. Perhaps Trump Derangement will lead them to double down, but that would be a dangerous move.

Instead, let's look at what Trump was after. As is typical of Trump moves, he's promoting multiple strategies in one action.

First, the obvious. Maduro has been a thorn in our side, and a horrible curse on the Venezuelan people, like his predecessor Hugo Chavez, who himself was briefly ousted in a 47-hour coup that sadly failed.. He has threatened the United States, and even taunted Trump that he should come after him, which was a mistake. He has deliberately promoted the flow of dangerous drugs into the United States, along with exporting criminals and promoting the status of Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, which is better understood as a covert military force of sorts. Getting rid of him is itself valuable, and this is the primary public justification for seizing him.

But that's just the beginning. What are some of the other dimensions here?

Iran: Venezuela has been a source of financial, diplomatic, and other support for the Mullahs' regime — which is itself under considerable pressure — as well as a potential place of refuge for the mullahs should their regime fall. (And a place where they have stashed cash.) It has also helped them sell their embargoed oil. Taking down Maduro's government will put an end to that, and increased Venezuelan production seems likely to lower global oil prices and probably makes a fall of the Mullarchy more likely. Hey, the mullahs can always flee to Russia.

China: China has been working hard to achieve footholds in the Western Hemisphere and Venezuela was the key to this effort. A Chinese delegation met with Maduro to pledge support just hours before a U.S. military team quietly snatched him from his bed. China loses the resource, and considerable prestige as a result. In addition, China's ability to access Venezuelan oil will now be subject to U.S. control. Given the United States' increased role in global production thanks to fracking, and Trump's close relationship with the Saudis, this makes China's ability to engage in military actions against, say, Taiwan much more fraught. China has a big strategic oil reserve, but it is not infinite.

Cuba: Cuba has been propped up financially, and with oil, from Venezuela due to the sympathy of Venezuelan communists for their role models in Castroland. It's not clear how long Cuba can last without that support. Probably even to the Cubans.

Russia: Once again, sophisticated Russian air defenses were useless in the face of Western attacks. (See also, Iran's nuclear weapons plants, or what's left of them). Honestly, I don't know why anyone buys their stuff. To be fair, it worked okay for Ukraine, but that was only against other Russian tech.

Above all of this, of course, is the moral impact. People like a winner and America under Trump is no longer the pitiful helpless giant it was under Biden. With this unprecedentedly daring and successful mission following hard on the unprecedentedly daring and successful mission to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, the U.S. is performing at a very high level, and people will notice. Likewise, the above adversaries have been openly humiliated. That matters

Napoleon said the moral is to the material as three is to one. The ratio may not be that high under modern warfare, but it's still there. American military recruiting is already way up; this will help.

So Trump has succeeded along five — or possibly six — dimensions here with one overnight mission. Of course, I'm mildly famous for advising people "don't get cocky," and that applies here. Maduro's gone but much of his machine, if chastened, remains in varying degrees of power in Venezuela. They will have to be killed, driven into exile, or co-opted (bribed) to join the winning side. The follow-through will be just as important as the flashy initial action. But still, not bad for a night's work, and indicative of Trump's ability to find a strategic point to strike multiple adversaries at once. (He did this, in a different way, by eliminating USAID.). Stay tuned for what's next.

[CNCAppsJames]

I find the Venezuela-Iran/Mullahs connection at minimum, modestly intriguing. 

[Jeff]

[neurosis]

Does anyone have any examples of anyone defending Maduro? I haven't seen it.   

Maybe I'm not hanging out in those circles? 

[JParis]

Just wait until a judge dismisses all charge "with prejudice" and rules that the US must return him to Venezuala.

Don't laugh, it exists withing the realm of possibility

[neurosis]

Just wait until a judge dismisses all charge "with prejudice" and rules that the US must return him to Venezuala.

Don't laugh, it exists withing the realm of possibility

Would that really be any worse than Trump commuting the sentence of the president of Honduras? He (Hernandez) was guilty of most of the same crimes Maduro is being charged with? Maduro deserves to be hung by his balls in public, but what was the point of giving the other guy a free pass? Because he was convicted under the Biden admin?

I also notice reports saying that fentanyl was never mentioned in the Maduro indictment.  Is anyone surprised by that?

[Jeff]

Does anyone have any examples of anyone defending Maduro? I haven't seen it.   

You're either blind or ignoring it.

Just Google "protests of maduro capture".
It's worldwide.

Meanwhile I can't find a single Venezuelan that is upset about him being gone.
I think the stat is like 9 million of them fled their country because of him.

[neurosis]

You're either blind or ignoring it.

Just Google "protests of maduro capture".
It's worldwide.

Those protests are about the US rights to invade another Country and kidnap their president, not a defense of Maduro.

Has any US politician called for the release of Maduro?

Meanwhile I can't find a single Venezuelan that is upset about him being gone.
I think the stat is like 9 million of them fled their country because of him.

I've seen a fair mix between the two. On one hand, I see people celebrating Maduro's capture, and I can see why. But I also see people protesting what they consider illegal military action in Venezuela.   If that's what you're calling a defense of Maduro 

[gcode]

Does anyone have any examples of anyone defending Maduro? I haven't seen it. 

There were protests by socialist groups all over the US withing hours of the initial press release.
They already had the signs printed and the protesters hires. They deployed to the streets within hours..
all funded by China.

[neurosis]

"Protesters are calling for the release of Nicolás Maduro because they view the U.S. military intervention to capture him as an illegal act of imperialism and a violation of Venezuela's sovereignty."

As soon as I see someone saying "Maduro was a great guy, he was just misunderstood"    I'll buy in to the "they are defending Maduro" narrative.