(Tungsten) carbide prices

[champshire]

Was told Kennametal is paying 45 a lb. The info is on their website. https://www.kennametal.com/us/en/services/carbide-recycling.html

I guess we have 3000 lbs we have been hoarding and now want to offload.

[MIL-TFP-41]

Just got notice of yet another price increase coming down the line. After reading a bit more, seems like a big part of these increases are being cause by the price of Ammonium Paratungstate (APT). Guess who controls 75% of global production of that material? Same place that controls 80% of tungsten production. China is holding back exporting these things, driving the price through the fucking roof, almost 800% (in the case of APT) since 2025. (cough tariffs)

$100 3/8" endmills will be the norm before the end of the year. 

[jstell]

And the worst part is that it's not because they don't have supply.  They are literally using it as a strategic squeeze.  And when we or someone (Korea is working to up their output by 50%, making them able to supply about 9% of the market instead of the current 6%) spends a handful of billions trying to setup new sources, China will just dump into the market and bankrupt the newcomers.

[Zoffen]

Its times like these that make me glad that i cut mostly aluminum....

[jstell]

Its times like these that make me glad that i cut mostly aluminum....

Definitely.  Being able to measure tool life in weeks instead of hours will help take the sting out of the increased tooling costs.

[MIL-TFP-41]

They are literally using it as a strategic squeeze. 
China will just dump into the market and bankrupt the newcomers.

Retaliatory tariffs.
And to your other point, that is exactly what they do. Limit competition by controlling supply. Competitor steps up, flood the market, bankrupt the guy, buy their assets, control more product.

[Here's Johnny!]

Got an email from one of our suppliers yesterday stating that everyone should expect significant increases in May up to 30%....

[Here's Johnny!]

Ammonium Para Tungstate (APT) is what is causing the spike in carbide prices....APT is being gobbled up and controlled by China from what I have read.

[SuperHoneyBadger]

Just got word from our tool guy that they expect tool prices to jump 2000% by end of next month, and they are preparing for the smaller tooling companies to go under if that happens... Sounds pretty doom and gloomy to me. Anyone else heard a Nostradamus-tier take like that this week?

[Here's Johnny!]

Anyone else heard a Nostradamus-tier take like that this week?

Our supplier in Ontario Canada here stated 30% in May but that could be just the start?

[Zoffen]

Just got word from our tool guy that they expect tool prices to jump 2000% by end of next month, and they are preparing for the smaller tooling companies to go under if that happens... Sounds pretty doom and gloomy to me. Anyone else heard a Nostradamus-tier take like that this week?

If this happens the world is over. That would mean a $50 endmill will be $1000? Might as well use all my money to buy a nice ass van and find a nice ass river to sit and live the rest of my life by...

[MIL-TFP-41]

I just got an update from YG-1 and Mitsubishi. Prices will be jumping 25-30%. Combined with all the other increase we have seen since the beginning of 2025, one of our main roughing tools for a few of our production machines that was $42 will be over $70.

[gcode]

[jstell]

This is the first I've seen mainstream coverage of the topic.
https://www.nbcnews.com/world/asia/china-south-korea-tungsten-iran-war-mine-rcna346266


I've previously written legislators to, in spite of all else requiring their attention, make this a priority of pressure to the administration.  Here's a lightly edited/updated copy of what I sent, if anyone wants to pile on - as easy as cut and paste.  I'm sure you all know who your congresspeople are and how to contact them.   

Tungsten is a metal of significant national security concern (due to its use in armor as well as armor-penetrating kinetic weapons) and 80% of the world supply is controlled by China.

Perhaps equally importantly, it is used to make carbide cutting tools for industry.

Almost every product on the planet journeys from an engineered idea to something you can hold in your hand (and many things you rely on but never see) by moving through a manufacturing facility into the real world.

And almost all of that in some way comes to be touched by carbide cutting tools that require Tungsten in their manufacture.  China has restricted exports of this necessary metal. 

Please work toward a solution that long term offers stability to a supply of Tungsten for manufacturing in this country, and short term to deal with China in order to ease the pressure on this necessary resource.