# of years before Gas cars are dead? place your bets.

[Jim at Gentex]

[quote="Jim at Gentex" post_id=11162 time=1621259303 user_id=83]
[quote="Bruce Caulley" post_id=11149 time=1621209847 user_id=99]
Full electric takeup won't happen until the grid is capable of handling the power draw of every home plugging in a few cars each night at the same time.  That won't happen while people still think that much juice can be reliably had with windmills etc.  So my guess is that petrol power is here to stay for a few more generations at least.  The realities of grid capacity and the economics of the required expansion can't be ignored.

Cheers
[/quote]

I agree 100%
However, the greenies can and will ignore the realities as they always do.
[/quote]

Diesel isn't going anywhere either for a long while.

[rdshear]

Another thing about making this mass switch to electric cars; The precious metals needed to make that many batteries will make a huge impact in several ways. One is the increased environmental issues from that much more mining. The other is the cost increases of other products. I went to an Iscar new product seminar two years ago. Iscar's president said that the demand for cobalt to make car batteries is going to make carbide tooling triple in cost over the next decade. That will have a huge downstream impact on prices. If $150 dollar performance 1/2" endmills start costing $450, there will be no choice but to raise prices.

I think that man may be thinking a little backward on his part.  Battery manufacturers are already phasing out cobalt from their batteries to the point that Panasonic plans to be cobalt free in the next few years.  

https://observer.com/2021/01/electric-vehicle-battery-cobalt-free-gm-panasonic/">https://observer.com/2021/01/electric-v ... panasonic/">https://observer.com/2021/01/electric-vehicle-battery-cobalt-free-gm-panasonic/

Alternately if the solid state battery technology comes through like Toyota is planning, Their EV batteries in their vehicles will have a 400 - 600 mile range and recharge in 10 minutes from dead to full.  They will also maintain 90% efficiency up to 30 years.  New technology like this could easily be a game changer.

https://www.autoblog.com/2020/12/19/toyota-solid-state-battery-ev-prototype-2021/">https://www.autoblog.com/2020/12/19/toy ... type-2021/">https://www.autoblog.com/2020/12/19/toyota-solid-state-battery-ev-prototype-2021/

[YoDoug]

Another thing about making this mass switch to electric cars; The precious metals needed to make that many batteries will make a huge impact in several ways. One is the increased environmental issues from that much more mining. The other is the cost increases of other products. I went to an Iscar new product seminar two years ago. Iscar's president said that the demand for cobalt to make car batteries is going to make carbide tooling triple in cost over the next decade. That will have a huge downstream impact on prices. If $150 dollar performance 1/2" endmills start costing $450, there will be no choice but to raise prices.

I think that man be thinking a little backward on his part.  Battery manufacturers are already phasing out cobalt from their batteries to the point that Panasonic plans to be cobalt free in the next few years.  

https://observer.com/2021/01/electric-vehicle-battery-cobalt-free-gm-panasonic/">https://observer.com/2021/01/electric-v ... panasonic/">https://observer.com/2021/01/electric-vehicle-battery-cobalt-free-gm-panasonic/

Alternately if the solid state battery technology comes through like Toyota is planning, Their EV batteries in their vehicles will have a 400 - 300 mile range and recharge in 10 minutes from dead to full.  They will also maintain 90% efficiency up to 30 years.  New technology like this could easily be a game changer.

https://www.autoblog.com/2020/12/19/toyota-solid-state-battery-ev-prototype-2021/">https://www.autoblog.com/2020/12/19/toy ... type-2021/">https://www.autoblog.com/2020/12/19/toyota-solid-state-battery-ev-prototype-2021/

Hopefully you are right. This was two years ago so tech may have changed since then.

[mkd]

I drive a 7 passenger SUV. Probably 99% of the time it is just me or just me and wife driving <50 miles from our house. In those times I could easily have an electric car. The problem is the 4 times a year we need to load three kids and two dogs and travel 6-18 hours to visit family. Just not practical to have to stop every 4-6 hours for 40+ minutes to charge an electric car. Also, the only 7 passenger electric SUV's are double the cost of equivalent gas SUV's. Truthfully, my wifes car could easily be a smaller electric, however again the cost is far more than I am willing to pay.

Hertz, avis and bunch of other companies could save you lots of money without bringing electrons into picture........
 and that's kinda masocistic, driving 6 hours without a 40 minute break.
It's 'funny' the lengths people will go to prove superior, their horse. :tollololo:

[mkd]

How many fully electric vehicles are on the market right now and how many of them are affordable?  

Washington State plans on banning the sale of gas powered vehicles as soon as 2030 and I'm not sure how they plan on working that out.

It's just smart politicking; legislating what is going to happen anyway, but getting the bragging rights far into the future.

[mkd]

Another thing about making this mass switch to electric cars; The precious metals needed to make that many batteries will make a huge impact in several ways. One is the increased environmental issues from that much more mining. The other is the cost increases of other products. I went to an Iscar new product seminar two years ago. Iscar's president said that the demand for cobalt to make car batteries is going to make carbide tooling triple in cost over the next decade. That will have a huge downstream impact on prices. If $150 dollar performance 1/2" endmills start costing $450, there will be no choice but to raise prices.

Cobalt is one of the binders for Tungsten inserts, huh.
Tesla is pioneering Nickel Iron phosphate chemistry for various reasons

[Matthew Hajicek]

Hertz, avis and bunch of other companies could save you lots of money without bringing electrons into picture........
 and that's kinda masocistic, driving 6 hours without a 40 minute break.
It's 'funny' the lengths people will go to prove superior, their horse. :tollololo:

My wife will drive 18 hours at a stretch.  For fun.  Our youngest saw the lower 48 before her second birthday.

But yeah, renting a vehicle for the occasional road trip makes a lot of sense.

[YoDoug]

[quote="Matthew Hajicek" post_id=11177 time=1621279097 user_id=57]

Hertz, avis and bunch of other companies could save you lots of money without bringing electrons into picture........
 and that's kinda masocistic, driving 6 hours without a 40 minute break.
It's 'funny' the lengths people will go to prove superior, their horse. :tollololo:

My wife will drive 18 hours at a stretch.  For fun.  Our youngest saw the lower 48 before her second birthday.

But yeah, renting a vehicle for the occasional road trip makes a lot of sense.
[/quote]

I'm not sure if rental policies have changed in the last few years, but when we looked into renting for a trip a few years back it was cost prohibitive. We wanted a mini-van for a week. At the time all of the rental companies at the airport would not rent to you if you did not have flight itinerary. When we called the non-airport locations to rent a mini-van the estimates were $1500+ for a week. You do that a few times a year and that is a lot of money.

[mkd]

[quote="Matthew Hajicek" post_id=11177 time=1621279097 user_id=57]

Hertz, avis and bunch of other companies could save you lots of money without bringing electrons into picture........
 and that's kinda masocistic, driving 6 hours without a 40 minute break.
It's 'funny' the lengths people will go to prove superior, their horse. :tollololo:

My wife will drive 18 hours at a stretch.  For fun.  Our youngest saw the lower 48 before her second birthday.

But yeah, renting a vehicle for the occasional road trip makes a lot of sense.

I'm not sure if rental policies have changed in the last few years, but when we looked into renting for a trip a few years back it was cost prohibitive. We wanted a mini-van for a week. At the time all of the rental companies at the airport would not rent to you if you did not have flight itinerary. When we called the non-airport locations to rent a mini-van the estimates were $1500+ for a week. You do that a few times a year and that is a lot of money.
[/quote]

Yeah, rental rapes vary widely. We did two weeks in a Chevy Tahoe in 2010, I wanna believe it was less than that.
Brought it back 7000 miles later, covered in bugs.

[Matthew Hajicek]

[quote="Matthew Hajicek" post_id=11146 time=1621189590 user_id=57]
Thinking of getting an electric motorcycle soon.

Will you get the optional subwoofer so you can have the rumble?  
[/quote]

I'll just play this:

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[ghuns]

...Yeah, rental rapes vary widely...

Not anymore. They are all just stupid HIGH.

Rental companies sold off tons of cars during the 'Rona lockdowns. They figured to make some quick cash and then buy new cars when things opened back up. Problem is, now they can't get new ones. At least not enough to replace what they sold off. A number of auto makers have shut down multiple lines due to part and raw material shortages. Sea freight shipping is also a total shitshow right now. A local Ford/Toyota dealer who normally has 400 new cars and trucks in inventory currently has 70.

[YoDoug]

...Yeah, rental rapes vary widely...

Not anymore. They are all just stupid HIGH.

Rental companies sold off tons of cars during the 'Rona lockdowns. They figured to make some quick cash and then buy new cars when things opened back up. Problem is, now they can't get new ones. At least not enough to replace what they sold off. A number of auto makers have shut down multiple lines due to part and raw material shortages. Sea freight shipping is also a total shitshow right now. A local Ford/Toyota dealer who normally has 400 new cars and trucks in inventory currently has 70.

Yup, the used car market is crazy as well. You have the normal spring time tax return buying period plus this year there was another round of rona stimulus. We currently have two kids sharing a car that sometimes results in us having to make extra trips right now. We were thinking of buying another $5000-ish range car, but after seeing the market, we decided to wait. We will wait until this fall when everyone is out of money.

[HTM01]

...Yeah, rental rapes vary widely...

Not anymore. They are all just stupid HIGH.

Rental companies sold off tons of cars during the 'Rona lockdowns. They figured to make some quick cash and then buy new cars when things opened back up. Problem is, now they can't get new ones. At least not enough to replace what they sold off. A number of auto makers have shut down multiple lines due to part and raw material shortages. Sea freight shipping is also a total shitshow right now. A local Ford/Toyota dealer who normally has 400 new cars and trucks in inventory currently has 70.

Yup, the used car market is crazy as well. You have the normal spring time tax return buying period plus this year there was another round of rona stimulus. We currently have two kids sharing a car that sometimes results in us having to make extra trips right now. We were thinking of buying another $5000-ish range car, but after seeing the market, we decided to wait. We will wait until this fall when everyone is out of money.

not gonna run out,  Biden is planning to give $2000/month stipend

[ghuns]

...Yup, the used car market is crazy as well. You have the normal spring time tax return buying period plus this year there was another round of rona stimulus. We currently have two kids sharing a car that sometimes results in us having to make extra trips right now. We were thinking of buying another $5000-ish range car, but after seeing the market, we decided to wait. We will wait until this fall when everyone is out of money.

Without new cars to sell, there's no trade ins. Without trade ins, used car inventory crashes. Without used car inventory, people who buy used cars are keeping their old cars longer. It's all just trickles down.

[YoDoug]

...Yup, the used car market is crazy as well. You have the normal spring time tax return buying period plus this year there was another round of rona stimulus. We currently have two kids sharing a car that sometimes results in us having to make extra trips right now. We were thinking of buying another $5000-ish range car, but after seeing the market, we decided to wait. We will wait until this fall when everyone is out of money.

Without new cars to sell, there's no trade ins. Without trade ins, used car inventory crashes. Without used car inventory, people who buy used cars are keeping their old cars longer. It's all just trickles down.

Prices are sky high on used cars right now. That is why we are not buying. Cars that will probably only last a year with crap tires that used to go for $1000-$1500 are going for $2500-$3000.