Behind the Curtain: A white-collar bloodbath

Smit · May 30, 2025, 05:24 PM

Quote from: neurosis on May 30, 2025, 04:06 PMHave you seen that movie Elysium? Do you think that it would end up looking something like that? Anyone who relies on government assistance fighting for survival is ignored while the wealthy live outside of having to acknowledge their existence?

Hell, it's kinda like that now!

Quote from: neurosis on May 30, 2025, 03:03 PMI hate to think that there will ever come a time that we would have to rely on government for a basic income. What a horrible existence. There may not be a choice at some point?

If (when?) it comes down to that it likely would be a horrible life. I can't imagine UBI would be more than enough for minimal survival, pretty much like welfare.

And nobody's going to give a shit about it until it's happening to them.

neurosis · May 30, 2025, 05:28 PM

Quote from: Smit on May 30, 2025, 05:24 PMAnd nobody's going to give a shit about it until it's happening to them.

I lived it until I turned 16 and ran away from home.

As a kid, trying to figure out how your going to eat every day isn't a great existence. I know that it's cliche to say that nobody thinks of the children, but they make the kids pay for the poor decisions of the parents.

People just don't think things through.

They're so busy trying to punish the parents that they don't realize who pays.

Del. · May 30, 2025, 05:33 PM

Quote from: Smit on May 30, 2025, 03:52 PMI do recall that.

I guess we're going to have to get to the point where people are not able to find jobs, then the people who aren't able to find jobs will be more open to at least thinking about it.

Can AI replace skilled trades?

neurosis · May 30, 2025, 05:37 PM

Quote from: Del. on May 30, 2025, 05:33 PMCan AI replace skilled trades?

Which?

I have a friend who works for Microsoft as an electrician and he's saying that... hold on, I'll paste the quote.

He's the guy that got me in to computers.

Del. · May 30, 2025, 05:39 PM

I don't see most of the trades being eliminated personally.

neurosis · May 30, 2025, 05:40 PM

Quote from: Del. on May 30, 2025, 05:39 PMI don't see most of the trades being eliminated personally.

You don't have to worry about it. You're retired.

I think that a lot of the hands on jobs are safe for a while?

CNCAppsJames · May 30, 2025, 05:52 PM

Quote from: Del. on May 30, 2025, 05:33 PMCan AI replace skilled trades?

It is pure hubris to think ANY job is irreplaceable. We can ALL be replaced.

They've been trying to replace programmers since the 90's. Still a ways off, but the low end guys... if they don't up their game, they WILL be looking for a new gig.

Since the mid-90's I've been in the automation game. It has not "replaced" people as has been the real concern of machine shop workers. Not to say it hasn't happened, but usually if someone is getting "replaced" it's for reasons other than automation is replacing them.

The lion's share of what I've seen has been the shops have been able to keep pace with the normal attrition of the business. Shops can do more with the same or less staff.

I'll.clean horse stalls before I take a UBI. I've done it before. I'm nkt after aid condoning again.

neurosis · May 30, 2025, 06:00 PM

Quote from: CNCAppsJames on May 30, 2025, 05:52 PMThey've been trying to replace programmers since the 90's. Still a ways off, but the low end guys... if they don't up their game, they WILL be looking for a new gig.

Have you seen the new dentist cnc's that program a 5axis crown automated? Not really new. I guess close to a decade new?

CNCAppsJames · May 30, 2025, 06:40 PM

Quote from: neurosis on May 30, 2025, 06:00 PMHave you seen the new dentist cnc's that program a 5axis crown automated? Not really new. I guess close to a decade new?

Yeah, that is a VERY specific application with limited differentiation from part to part and limited tools. I guess it has been around fkr 10 years or so now that you me now that you mention it. Last I see Delcam had the programming stuff nailed, and it was expensive AF. Like PowerMill expensive.

neurosis · May 30, 2025, 06:45 PM

Quote from: CNCAppsJames on May 30, 2025, 06:40 PMYeah, that is a VERY specific application with limited differentiation from part to part and limited tools.

True, but the technology is amazing. Those guys have no idea how to machine.

It's not too far fetched to think that any job that can be taught to a person can be taught to Ai and then made better by Ai.

CNCAppsJames · May 31, 2025, 11:06 AM

It is, but it isn't at the same time. It's not a lot different than a CAM operated Swiss machine or a 4-Slide Davenport.

Doctor scans the tooth, programmer cleans up the data. They use the same tools and same blanks for each of the various tooth types (molar, canine, incisor, etc...), apply the toolpath done. Most CAM systems have had a feature to do exactly this fkr at least a generation. PowerMill from it's inception, Mastercam since V7, for example.

The problem in the Job Shop world is the high mix nature of the work. Most parts are not similar enough to lend itself to that degree of automation.

Don't get me wrong, I respect the technology, I definitely respect what went into it to get it there, but at the same time, I look at it like I look at my 3D printer.

neurosis · May 31, 2025, 12:19 PM

Quote from: CNCAppsJames on May 31, 2025, 11:06 AMThe problem in the Job Shop world is the high mix nature of the work. Most parts are not similar enough to lend itself to that degree of automation.

I definitely feel safe for the time being.

We do a lot of prototype work for Blue Origin and some very small run stuff for Boeing defense.

Quite a bit of our workload is also spares so low quantities and super old prints that are barely readable. A lot of it is high heat treat and zero gap split rings.

I'm getting old so I'm not sure this is going to affect us necessarily, but future generations?

CNCAppsJames · May 31, 2025, 02:57 PM

Quote from: neurosis on May 31, 2025, 12:19 PM...
I'm getting old so I'm not sure this is going to affect us necessarily, but future generations?

Manufacturing is changing. For better, or for worse, it is changing.

Fortunately for me, the only constant IS change. I like it. Not everyone does though. Sucks for them. Believe it or not, there are AE's that aren't down for change. I knew a couple guys in SoCal that were AE's. Both maintained their status quo. They got left behind. So much so that today, their skills are almost irrelevant. It bums me out. They are so far behind it would take them the rest of their careers to catch up. They were good dudes.

Stay current at the very least so you don't become irrelevant.

neurosis · May 31, 2025, 03:10 PM

Quote from: CNCAppsJames on May 31, 2025, 02:57 PMStay current at the very least so you don't become irrelevant.

I know a few tool makers that didn't stay current and are a lost trade. They dictate their wage and it's hard to find anyone who does what they do.

I do know what you're saying. And I agree. Be good at what you do.

It's getting more difficult just to find a good setup guy who can think for themselves these days. You have to do all of their thinking for them.

Newbeeee™ · May 31, 2025, 03:28 PM

Quote from: CNCAppsJames on May 31, 2025, 11:06 AMThey use the same tools and same blanks for each of the various tooth types (molar, canine, incisor, etc...), apply the toolpath done.

Dentist software is very "clever" - fully graphical user interface

but chuckle aside it is good.
But as you say, there is a limit to how different a tooth needs to be in general - yes detail is different, but work holding, stock size, cutter size....imagine how efficient a bucket shop would be with these work parameters....
I did look at standardising a customers project with the same stock size - wasted money for me!