Russia Ukraine: War soon?

[Dan_AKA_ROY23]

Biden is a puppet. He still thinks he a senator and keeps calling Kameltoe the President!
I doubt he can even tie his own shoes.

Not disagreeing. I don't like him, either.

I said what I said. Biden (and his puppet string masters) are right on this. Or are you ok with U.S. military shooting down Russian planes? Because a no-fly zone will inevitably result in that.

[JParis]

Or are you ok with U.S. military shooting down Russian planes? Because a no-fly zone will inevitably result in that.

Yes

Though my preference would be under the NATO banner

[gcode]

Saint Javelin

The viral meme (shown above) recasting the "Apostle of the apostles" is in reverence to a device that knows no religion: the FGM-148 Javelin portable fire-and-forget anti-tank missile. Since the start of Putin's dastardly invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian freedom fighters have extensively utilized the American-made weapon system – co-produced by Lockheed Martin and Raytheon – to rain destruction down upon the Russian military's armored vehicles. Ukraine's Defense Ministry estimates that 102 tanks and 536 armored vehicles had been destroyed as of February 26th. The Javelin likely factored heavily into that rousing combat success.

"This weapon allows a single soldier to target and destroy even the most heavily armored main battle tank with an almost guaranteed kill rate, at great range and with minimal risk," Army Capt. Vincent Delany wrote of the Javelin for West Point's Modern War Institute.

[Jim at Gentex]

For those of you who pray regularly, please uplift one of my church's missionaries who lives in the small city of Bila Tserkva, just a few kilometers south of Kyiv. 

His name is Bruce Tuttle, and he sent an email to the church yesterday to inform us that he and his family were hiding in their root cellar after hearing explosions and air-raid sirens very close to their home.

Russian paratroopers were also seen dropping in very close by, so the fear is that they may want to take this smaller city to use as a base of operations to push north into Kyiv.  Bruce and his family are trusting in the Lord as all of this unfolds, and he has asked believers to uplift his family in prayer.

[gcode]

Personally, I would love to see a squadron of A-10 ground attach jets
throw a party for that 40 mile long convoy heading for Kiev.
This shit show would be over tomorrow. 

[gcode]

Ukraine has applied to join the EU,
The EU accepted their application on the spot
The cards are really going against Putin in this shit show,
He is either going to have to back off or be put down like a mad dog.
I keep hoping there are some rational people in the Russian government
who will decide Putin needs a "vacation"
Even if Russia "wins" in Ukraine, it will lose big time.
It will take it's economy a generation to recover from the the sanctions
and boycotts being established if Putin continues down this road

Just yesterday, Germany scrapped it's new green deal bullshit
and set it's goals as being energy independent going forward 
That include halting the shutdown of existing nuclear plants

[gcode]

and then there is this

Yes. Russia could use nuclear weapons

The thinking goes that if Moscow's actual territory was under threat by overwhelming conventional force — think a NATO attack — then Russia reserved the right to respond with tactical nuclear weapons, or more, as Moscow has no way to win a long-term conventional war against NATO forces.

In fact, in wargame simulations I have participated in for several years now, we always assume that Russia would use tactical nuclear weapons against NATO if a war ever did break out.

But such thinking leaves a lot of ground uncovered. NATO is not exactly itching for a fight with Moscow or to attack its territory, even with Russia's invasion of Ukraine still unfolding.

Back in 2012, I pressed my Russian colleague, asking in what other situations Russia would use nuclear weapons, if any. He explained that "if anything threatens our ability to exist as a nation and prosper, it is my view that we would use nuclear weapons."

I didn't believe him then, but I do now.

[Dan_AKA_ROY23]

The Russian advance on Kyiv remains "basically... where it was yesterday" according to a senior defense official. 

The Russians are not only facing "fuel and sustainment" problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. 

The official cited a number of possible reasons for the stall, including Ukrainian resistance.

The official also cited the possibility that the Russians were pausing their advance by choice because they could be "regrouping, rethinking, reevaluating." CNN reported earlier that the US believes Russia is resorting to heavier firepower and more devastating weapons systems

    "They will regroup, they will adjust, they will change their tactics," the official said, adding that the Russian defense ministry openly admitted it would target civilian areas in Kyiv.

But the official also noted that the Russian military appears to be "risk averse" when it comes to its own troops.

"There has been in the last six days evidence of a certain risk averse behavior by the Russian military," the official said. "You've seen it on the ground, where units are surrendering, sometimes without a fight. And they've got, a lot of these soldiers are conscripts, never been in combat before, some of whom we believe weren't even told they were going to be in combat. So we're just seeing evidence of a bit of risk aversion."

[beej]

Back in 2012, I pressed my Russian colleague, asking in what other situations Russia would use nuclear weapons, if any. He explained that "if anything threatens our ability to exist as a nation and prosper, it is my view that we would use nuclear weapons."

I didn't believe him then, but I do now.

what would the United States do if something threatened our ability to exist? We'd probably use nukes.

[gcode]

Personally, I would love to see a squadron of A-10 ground attach jets
throw a party for that 40 mile long convoy heading for Kiev.
This shit show would be over tomorrow. 

I just read an article stating that the 40 mile long convoy headed for Kiev is stalled.
It has not moved in 24 hours. Reportedly, it's out of fuel, out of food and
the untrained teenaged conscripts manning it are extremely unmotivated and have no idea what they are doing
in Ukraine.
If true, this is very good news.

[RobertELee]

Then we have the Smitheads of the world gnashing their teeth at Trump for calling Putin smart and Biden dumb. 

[ghuns]

I just read an article stating that the 40 mile long convoy headed for Kiev is stalled...

So they're camping out for a while. Once they get rolling again it'll be ugly.

A convoy like that is called an IFR, short for "idiots following roads". It's every A-10 pilot's wet dream. Like in Gulf War Part I when the Iraqi armor fled Kuwait down a 6 lane highway. It's like shooting fish in a barrel.

The fact this convoy is sitting and is not being destroyed means Russia controls the airspace 100% and Ukrainian artillery ain't what it's cracked up to be.

[Jeff]

Right now Trump is sitting back saying "I told ya so".

He called it, and the dumbsmits didn't listen.

[beej]

Interesting read. don't know if it's true but very interesting

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497993363076915204?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1497993363076915204%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nationalreview.com%2Fcorner%2Fstop-what-you-are-doing%2F

[gcode]

Russian troops surrendering without a fight

This is a good read.. too much to cut and paste ..

The report in this case comes from the Pentagon, so ... yeah. Obviously the U.S. has an incentive to circulate this information even if there's not a lick of truth to it.



Yesterday I noted that experts are split as to just how much of a military fiasco this has become for Russia. Some believe the army has been constrained by Putin wanting to win quickly and "cleanly," with minimal civilian casualties and therefore minimal international — and domestic — backlash. Believing that was possible turns out to have been a catastrophic miscalculation. "Half a dozen western intelligence officials told the Financial Times that the Russian armed forces' performance so far suggested Moscow had either failed to collect the correct information on Ukraine's defences, or that it had been ignored by Putin and his most senior generals — or both," the FT reported this morning, adding that Putin seems to have badly underestimated Ukrainians' willingness to resist.

Meanwhile, analysts continue to scratch their heads at Russia's failure to achieve air superiority over Ukraine's much smaller air force. Theories kicking around are that Russian pilots just aren't as well-trained as they need to be or that "the VKS are not confident in their capacity to safely deconflict large-scale sorties with the activity of Russian ground-based SAMs operated by the Ground Forces." In other words, they risk being mistakenly shot out of the sky by their own troops because they can't coordinate effectively.





How much will that contribute to the Russian military's morale problem?

Ukraine has been crafty in how it's gone about trying to erode that morale, incidentally. They've set up a website and a Telegram channel designed to allow Russian families with men in the military to check on the status of their loved ones. They've also invited Russian POWs to call their mothers and let them know that they're alive. That's a cunning way to break through Putin's information blackout inside Russia and to seed unrest among the Russian population. The more Russian mothers find out that their boys are in captivity, the more grassroots demand for the war to end will galvanize. The worse the morale crisis for Russia gets, the more likely Ukraine is to prevail.