Russia Ukraine: War soon?

[gcode]

what would happen to energy companies which trade on the NYSE, yet have operations in Russia? 

most of them have closed down their Russian operations

[gcode]

I have to disagree, terrorists will buy it regardless

The AK-47 is probably the best infantry weapon ever devised.
It's cheap to manufacture, extremely reliable and easy to use.
There will always be a market for AK47s

I was referring to advanced weapons, like aircraft, tanks , anti aircraft systems night vision and battlefield communications
Many of these system are so bad as to be worse than useless.
Their battlefield communications gear is so bad, the Russians are using cell phones.
The Ukrainians are tracking these cell phone and assassinating the high ranking officers who use them.
The Russians have lost over a dozen high ranking commanders in the last 50 days.
The Russians have even lost one on their biggest and most modern warships to a country that does not even have a navy.
My point is, Russian gear is performing very badly and they are going to have a tough time selling it in the future

 

[CNCAppsJames]

We spent $1,000,000 to develop a pen to write in space. The Russians used a pencil. 

 

Gangsters and terrorists will buy their shit and be happy to have it.

[gcode]

Yelena's son is one of a significant but unknown number of Russian contract soldiers who have refused to either fight in Ukraine in the first place or who have fought and do not want to return.

Lawyer Pavel Chikov, founder of the Agora legal-aid NGO, has written on Telegram that more than 1,000 military personnel and National Guard troops from at least seven regions have refused to go to Ukraine.

Ruslan Leviyev, the founder of the Conflict Intelligence Team, a Russian NGO that monitors open-source information about the Russian military, told Current Time that the actual number of these cases might be considerably larger and that the refusals could be severely hampering Russia's efforts to regroup and renew its military operations in eastern Ukraine.

"The phenomenon of refusal is becoming systemic," Leviyev said. "Such soldiers are found in practically every unit that has returned from Ukraine. According to our estimates, from 20 to 40 percent of the contract servicemen that returned from Ukraine and that are being readied to be sent back are refusing to return to combat."

Leviyev said most of these soldiers are not deserters but could face legal ramifications for refusing to obey orders. To convict, however, prosecutors must demonstrate that the order was lawful and that the refusal to obey caused "substantial harm" to the military

"From the cases we have seen, they are being intimidated with threats of prosecution and being worked over by military prosecutors," he said. "But so far no one has been prosecuted, according to what we have seen."

Rights lawyers say the government's unwillingness to call the invasion of Ukraine a "war" or to declare war or martial law could give dissenting servicemen some protection from the worst consequences of refusing to fight.

Inclined Toward Treason  from Radio Free Europe

[Jim at Gentex]

IDK - truth will prolly be out in less than a week.....

...or never.
I'm going with never. 

They say the first casualty of war is the truth.
In today's instant digital age, that's even more of a relevant concept than ever.

'Truth' depends on where you get your info nowadays.
It seems you can pick either side of ANY issue and find TONS of 'truth' to support your position.

[Incogneeto]

...or never.
I'm going with never. 

They say the first casualty of war is the truth.
In today's instant digital age, that's even more of a relevant concept than ever.

'Truth' depends on where you get your info nowadays.
It seems you can pick either side of ANY issue and find TONS of 'truth' to support your position.

I think picking that little tad of "truth" out of The Mass of Opinion published as truth is today's quandary.

[CNCAppsJames]

.... Conflict Intelligence Team, a Russian NGO ....

Anyone want to take any bets that the CIA funds this?

[Dan_AKA_ROY23]

I think picking that little tad of "truth" out of The Mass of Opinion published as truth is today's quandary.

What the Russians are so good at. Lies sprinkled with truths.

"A lie stands on one leg, truth on two." - Sir Richard's Almanac

^^^ A wise saying. When to examine it closely, it says 'one leg' not 'no legs'. Hence, a good lie has truthful facts intertwined in it.

[Incogneeto]

What the Russians are so good at. Lies sprinkled with truths.

"A lie stands on one leg, truth on two." - Sir Richard's Almanac

^^^ A wise saying. When to examine it closely, it says 'one leg' not 'no legs'. Hence, a good lie has truthful facts intertwined in it.

Soooo you are saying this is a half Troof???

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia%20accuses%20biden%20of%20having%20dementia/ar-AAWnC74?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=d1e2c07c3e10400ead554a067109933e

[gcode]

The Russian's are now claiming the the battle cruiser that was sunk last week was actually sunk by NATO.
That is what they are saying for public consumption. That is a serious escalation of the rhetoric and nothing
good can come of it.

[Incogneeto]

No Incog - that's just stating the bleeding obvious!

"Sarcasmo or Sorna"

or if you prefer "Sarcasme"    

That's French.

[gcode]

Rumors of Was

A long article by an anonymous blogger... I sure hope he's FOS, however...  Here's the take away

I honestly hope I am reading both Vladimir and the situation wrong. The problem is, for all that he apparently does feel that he is winning, he is in a desperate position. Even if the West could somehow give him an exit that he could possibly take, he won't take it. Without a clear and major victory, his rule is finished and he will pay with his life. This might delicately be called a desperate situation, and as I've noted before several times, desperate people do desperate (and stupid) things.

If he has decided to ignore May 9, we are going to see a long and brutal war. If he succeeds in dragging NATO into direct conflict, I still see it as being brutal and lasting longer than people may think given the low numbers of troops for most countries. Most of NATO has depended on the U.S. and its troops for so long that what little defense they do have is about as firm as a bucket of spit. That said, if you haven't already done so, take a look at which countries do have a defense, and a bit of offense. It's clear that Vladmir is setting the stage in Russian public opinion for Russia to be already at war with NATO via proxy Ukraine. This gives him a number of options military and otherwise.

If he doesn't ignore May 9, we are almost guaranteed to see orders for the use of special weapons in the next two weeks. I do not, repeat NOT, see orders for or the use of strategic nuclear weapons except as a threat at this time. Anything done will be tactical in nature, and I see the Azovstal plant as a likely first target of chemical weapons.

Based on the steps he is taking, including making this a war with NATO, I am moving my odds on orders being given for the use of special weapons from 60/40 to 90 percent until May 9. That said, I have one final question to ask:

Will such an order be obeyed?

[gcode]

Military truck  maintenance 101

The cumulative effects of all these factors leads to horrendous levels of Russian Army Truck fleet operational attrition.

Short form: 6-to-8 weeks more fighting will deadline the entire Russian Army military truck fleet.
16/
Between the end of April and Mid-May 2022, the Ukrainian Army will be able to counter-attack EVERYWHERE.

Because there will be NOWHERE more than 20 miles/30 km inside Ukraine where Russian troops won't be out of food and low on ammunition.

[gcode]

A coup ??

Rumours are swirling in Moscow that a number of former generals and KGB officials are preparing to oust Russia's president Vladimir Putin and plan to end the war in Ukraine, which is increasingly seen across Russia as a strategic mistake and, above all, an economic disaster.

The top of Putin's former employer – the Russian security service FSB – is said to be so frustrated about the lack of military progress in Ukraine that it has reached out to a number of generals and former army officials, according to various analysts and local media reports.

In particular a group called the 'Siloviki' – which comprises of former FSB officers who are active in Russian politics – is said to be pushing hard to replace Putin, together with former officers from the GRU, KGB and FSO, other Russian intelligence units.

Hopefully there is more to this than rumors

[CNCAppsJames]

Putin is a gangster... who routinely does gangster shit. He won't go quietly.