New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen

[mkd]

I already mentioned those.  The service industry is by definition luxury.  Labor used to be 98% agricultural, then down to a few percent agricultural and mostly industrial.  Now that industry is automating, can we maintain an economy on 98% service industry?  Even the service industry is becoming automated.

Packages are beginning to be delivered by drones, homes beginning to be 3D printed, most retail is online ordering, and even brick and mortar stores are beginning to be automated.  Accountants and other financial workers are being replaced by software.  Most recreation is online.  Yes, there's still quite some ways to go, but once that service industry is 98% automated, what's left for people to do for money?  Can we have 90% of the population earn a living by being a YouTube personality?  Even that is susceptible to automation; in another few decades you'll be able to tell the computer what you want to watch and it will generate a photorealistic video on the fly.

Is automation inflationary or deflationary in the economy?
The answer will blow up your absurd ideas on UBI.

[beej]

No they don't. Not an equal education anyway. We all have access to public education, but not all public education is equal.  I've been to both.  There is a huge difference.

We also don't have the same access to a college education.

That is literally the "pull yourself up by your bootstraps" story. It's just not that simple for everyone.

Some people have to start working before they're able to graduate from high school.  I don't know your background, but we obviously don't all come from the same. 

I was out collecting aluminum cans when I was 11 years old so I could buy shoes for school.  My cousin was robbing houses and selling drugs at 16. People see what ever path is easier for them.  Until you're in their shoes it's hard to say what you would do.  You can say that we all have the same opportunity but it's just not true. I certainly didn't have the same opportunity that my boss did. He inherited his position in life. The truth is that you can choose to try to work harder and dig yourself out, or become a victim of circumstance.

I'm not doing a good job of getting my point across to you. You just said I'm wrong by proving my point. What I'm saying is that there is upward mobility if you want it. your were picking up cans so that you could by shoes for school. Did your kids have to do that as well or are you better off than your parents? It sounds to me like, since you are on a Mastercam forum that you were able to secure a pretty good job, better than your parents must have had. Did you pull yourself up by your bootstraps. That's not what I would call it, but it sounds like that's what you would call it.

Now of course. Not all educations are the same. But I am talking about upward mobility. Your boss started out with some opportunities that you didn't have. I get that. Is he doing better than his dad did? Are you doing better than your dad did?  That's what I'm talking about.

My dad raised 7 boys, my mom was a homemaker and didn't work outside the home. He made $8 an hour at a sand and gravel plant in the 70s and eventually became the plant manager which got him up to around $15 an hour in the early 90"s. He had an 8th grade education.  But he did manage, somehow, (I"m not sure how) to put me and my brothers through a private Catholic school till the 8th grade and public high school after that. We were also share croppers and grew our own meat and vegetables. I was one of the poorest kids in my school. But I took advantage of the opportunities that came my way and I am in much better shape than my parents were. In fact all of my brothers are.

[beej]

and one other thing. a lot of people on the Dem side of things have risen far above their upbringing. I respect that. But when they talk about it. They say, Yeah but not everyone can do what I did. That's what republicans mean by Elitist. They are acknowledging with all of the empathy they got, that they are better than most.

If a republican says I rose above my upbringing and you can too. That says I believe in you!

[neurosis]

I'm not doing a good job of getting my point across to you. You just said I'm wrong by proving my point. What I'm saying is that there is upward mobility if you want it.

Maybe I'm not doing a good job of getting my point across to you?  I'm not arguing that there is upward mobility if you want it. I'm saying that path isn't equal for everyone.

[YoDoug]

I never hear conservatives say "pull yourself up by your bootstraps" I hear democrats say that republicans say that. 

If people want to make their lives better it's not that hard. statistics say that if you finish high school, get at least 2 more years of education after that, wait to have children until you are married, and keep free from drug or alcohol addictions, you will be in better financial shape than your parents were.

You assertion makes no account for inflation/wages/taxation/etc. Many people have the same education level as their parents, don't drink or do drugs, but live in areas where housing/taxes/etc have made them far less financially successful than their parents.

[beej]

Maybe I'm not doing a good job of getting my point across to you?  I'm not arguing that there is upward mobility if you want it. I'm saying that path isn't equal for everyone.

of course the path isn't equal for everyone. it's not even equal for siblings. How could the path be equal for 7 billion people. but unequal doesn't mean bad. it's just different. If you want equal, you want marxism. And I think we've established the harshness of that.

[neurosis]

To frame it a little differently, Some people have to work a LOT harder to even get in to a position that upward mobility is possible for them. And yea, I know.  That isn't a very popular opinion.   

[neurosis]

unequal doesn't mean

No, it is bad for some people. It's almost impossible. That's the point.

Spend 12 years in a school system that doesn't give a shit if you even show up to school and then tell me where you'll be when you graduate.

[beej]

No, it is bad for some people. It's almost impossible. That's the point.

Spend 12 years in a school system that doesn't give a shit if you even show up to school and then tell me where you'll be when you graduate.

you just went from complaining about republicans to complaining about teachers unions.

[neurosis]

Sorry Beej, I'm probably coming across as more of a butt hole than I intend to.

[Matthew Hajicek]

Is there still upward mobility in the US?  Sure, but not nearly as much as there used to be.  Anyone talking on a machining forum about how they made it is selection bias.  Those that didn't make it aren't here to talk about it, they're slaving away in an Amazon warehouse or on the street.  The truth is there's less upward mobility now than ever before.  CEO pay skyrockets while worker pay is flat, actually shrinking if you account for inflation; the rich are getting richer while the poor are getting poorer.  That's the ancap paradise, but it's not sustainable or stable.  Eventually the poor get desperate and angry enough to revolt.



https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/social-mobility-upwards-decline-usa-us-america-economics/

https://files.epi.org/charts/img/8755.png

https://www.epi.org/publication/ceo-pay-has-grown-90-times-faster-than-typical-worker-pay-since-1978/

[neurosis]

you just went from complaining about republicans to complaining about teachers unions.

I hate teachers unions too. lol. 

The one thing that I've figured out about being in the middle of politics. Both sides hate you.

[beej]

Is there still upward mobility in the US?  Sure, but not nearly as much as there used to be.  Anyone talking on a machining forum about how they made it is selection bias.  Those that didn't make it aren't here to talk about it, they're slaving away in an Amazon warehouse or on the street.  The truth is there's less upward mobility now than ever before.  CEO pay skyrockets while worker pay is flat, actually shrinking if you account for inflation; the rich are getting richer while the poor are getting poorer.  That's the ancap paradise, but it's not sustainable or stable.  Eventually the poor get desperate and angry enough to revolt.



https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/social-mobility-upwards-decline-usa-us-america-economics/

https://files.epi.org/charts/img/8755.png

https://www.epi.org/publication/ceo-pay-has-grown-90-times-faster-than-typical-worker-pay-since-1978/

in 1940 every industrialized country in the world was decimated by WWII except the United States. That was an era of unprecedented growth. It's not likely to be repeated.

[Matthew Hajicek]

and one other thing. a lot of people on the Dem side of things have risen far above their upbringing. I respect that. But when they talk about it. They say, Yeah but not everyone can do what I did. That's what republicans mean by Elitist. They are acknowledging with all of the empathy they got, that they are better than most.

If a republican says I rose above my upbringing and you can too. That says I believe in you!

SEAL the deal.

Success = Effort x Ability x Luck.  I'm about on par with my dad for success at this point, and potentially on my way to doing better.  I can easily identify several points of extreme luck that I took advantage of to get here.  Without those points of luck, or without an engineer father with some machines in his basement, I would not be doing nearly as well.  Luck can knock you down too, I had a couple points of bad luck that set me back considerably.

Many people begin with basically nothing; no education worth mentioning, no skills, no good role models to follow, not even any idea of what career paths they might follow.  From their point of view, their options are wage slave, drug dealer, or sports star.

When someone says "I rose above my upbringing and you can too!", chances are they're neglecting the luck, the odds, and different starting conditions.  "I won the lottery, so you can too!  See, everyone here at the lottery winner's convention did it!"

[YoDoug]

I hate teachers unions too. lol. 

The one thing that I've figured out about being in the middle of politics. Both sides hate you.

LOL, I have single handedly gotten R's and D's, Lib's and Conservatives, Christians and atheists, etc. to all join together against me by simple telling them the truth about food/nutrition.