Russia Ukraine: War soon?

[gcode]

Space and Time

Read the whole article. It is excellent

Vladimir Putin's pointless war has already led to thousands of people losing their lives, suffering from life-changing injuries or left traumatised by their experiences, along with the destruction of Ukrainian homes and infrastructure. Throughout Europe refugees wonder about when they will be able to return home and what they will find when they get there. There is more tragedy to come. This is why the search for some sort of cease-fire is growing, though it is still hard to see the form it can take so long as President Putin sticks to his most ambitious objectives; despite his forces being further away than they were at the start of the war from being able to meet them.

There is a tendency to neglect these costs of war when seeking to make sense of the strategies adopted by both sides, for this does require dispassionate analysis, putting aside wishful thinking and emotion. Yet the human dimension must always be kept in mind. We are not looking down on a chessboard with otherwise inanimate pieces being moved by a strategic grandmaster according to some clever plan. Those being moved have their own perspectives and agency, their own motives and anxieties.

The decisions of numerous individuals will determine how this war ends. Can Ukrainian civilians remain steadfast in the face of merciless Russian bombardment? Can the apparently high Ukrainian morale be sustained through a major setback? And on the Russian side, what happens as people realise that they have been misled about the war's purpose and that their young men have died in an exercise in futility? How are soldiers, many conscripts, responding to the frightening and unexpected situation in which they find themselves? What about officers, alarmed about their lost men and equipment and lack of reserves, unable either to fulfil their orders or to retreat? How do Putin's courtiers, aware that the war is going badly, explain to their leader the dire consequences of the current strategy? And then there is Putin. At some point will it dawn on him that he has failed in the greatest gamble of his career?

[gcode]

Putins War will be a total failure

A twitter feed from The Times (of London)

some quotes

A report thought to be by an analyst in the FSB, the successor agency to the KGB, said that the Russian dead could already number 10,000. The Russian defence ministry has acknowledged the deaths of only 498 of its soldiers in Ukraine

Russia's lead forces have been "decimated" and it is not inevitable that it will succeed in taking over Ukraine, the head of the UK's armed forces has said.

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, chief of the defence staff, said that Moscow had "got itself into a mess" and that its invasion was "not going well".

[gcode]

The Failed Logistics Of The Russian Invasion

Some takeaways:

Ukrainian forces destroyed all rail links between the two countries.
Russian forces are relying on analog, unsecured radio communications rather than scrambled digital channels, and Ukrainian forces are listening in and jamming.
Poor logistics also helped Soviet forces lose in Afghanistan.
Russia has 30,000 strong military rail organization.
"Russia doesn't have enough trucks." They can't operate effectively more than 90 miles from supply dumps.
A large percentage of truck transport was dedicated to rocket resupply, not fuel and food.
Russia only had 3-5 days of supplies when they invaded. When those ran out, they were screwed.
Russia's military works on a "push" logistic system rather than a "pull" system used by the U.S. military, mean it's not very flexible.
Russia has the capability to set up the infrastructure for a longer war, but it's going to take time.
Russia's failure to quickly achieve it's objectives has seen it resort to more desperate and indiscriminate tactics.

[Dan_AKA_ROY23]

Keep em coming, gcode. 

[Dan_AKA_ROY23]

Putins War will be a total failure

A twitter feed from The Times (of London)

some quotes

I think Times of London. or NY Times? (saw on Twitter)

There are/were? two groups hunting down Zelensky for assassination. Chechnyan commandos said how the Ukranian forces sniffed them out and destroyed them was "eerie" like they "were always a couple steps ahead of us, knowing our every move" Another mercenary group (forget the name) were attempting to assassinate Zelensky (and some 30 other Ukrainian gov't officials) and meet the same fate. Ukrainian guards killed them.

Sources saying the FSB (formally KGB) gave the Ukrainians the advanced warning and feed them vital info. A growing number of FSB are against Putin and this war.

[gcode]

As someone who grew up in The Cold War, and cut my teeth on books like Tom Clancy's Red Storm Rising,
I've got to say I am utterly gobsmacked (and pleased) at how poorly the Russian military is performing
I thought they'd roll over Ukraine is 2 or 3 days and am very happy to be wrong.
The only drawback to the drubbing Putin is taking is that he is a proud (and batshit crazy???) man
with several thousand nukes to fall back on.

[beej]

Great articles, Gcode!

I can't help but believe that a lot of their successes have been from Nato supplied intelligence.

[gcode]

Translation of FSB leak

TRANSLATION OF A PURPORTED FSB ANALYSIS OF THE UKRAINE SITUATION: "Our current position is like Germany in 1943-1944 – but that's our STARTING position in Ukraine."

And: "You can sprint 100m – but try that in a marathon. And so, with the Ukrainian question we lunged as if going for a 100m sprint, but turned out we'd signed up for a marathon."

Plus:

Is there a possibility of a localized nuclear strike? Yes. Not for any military objectives. Such a weapon won't help with the breach of the defenses. But with a goal of scaring everyone else (The West). . . . To offer further cynicism, I don't believe that Putin will press the red button to destroy the entire world.

First, it's not one person that decides, and someone will refuse. There are lots of people there and there is no single "red" button.

Second, there are certain doubts that it actually functions properly. Experience shows that the more transparent the control procedures, the easier it is to identify problems. And where it's mirky as to who controls what and how, but always reports full of bravado, is where there are always problems.

I am not sure that the "red button" system functions according to the declared data. Besides, plutonium fuel must be changed every 10 years.

All of this sounds plausible. Now here's the bit that makes me doubt that this is real:

Third, and this is the most disgusting and sad, I personally do not believe in Putin's will to sacrifice himself when he does not even allow his closest ministers and advisors to be in his vicinity. Whether it's due to his fear of COVID or a possible assassination is irrelevant. If you are scared for the most trusted people to be near you, then how could you possibly choose to destroy yourself and those dearest to you.

This is not an official report but a memo to outsiders from a single anonymous FSB analyst. But to say this about Putin either means that the FSB has turned against him enough that there's no fear of repercussions (in which case Putin is likely toast) or that this is a fake and the final paragraph is the real payload — which doesn't mean the earlier analysis is wrong or not what the FSB thinks, only that encouraging FSB and other official discontent with Putin is the real purpose of this analysis.

Or none of it could be true. Some friends who know more than I do think it's plausible and could very likely be genuine, but even they're cautious.

[ghuns]

...Another mercenary group (forget the name) were attempting to assassinate Zelensky...

Wagner Group. A big Russian PMC ran by one of Putin's BFFs. They do the dirty shit Putin doesn't want his military tied to.

[Dan_AKA_ROY23]

Great articles, Gcode!

I can't help but believe that a lot of their successes have been from Nato supplied intelligence.

I hear that. Some "off the record" are saying NATO intelligence crucial in helping Ukrainian forces. They are the 'eyes in the skies' (via satellites). NATO will downplay that, though. "We know NOTHING" :Sgt. Schultz voice: LOL

[Dan_AKA_ROY23]

Wagner Group. A big Russian PMC ran by one of Putin's BFFs. They do the dirty shit Putin doesn't want his military tied to.

That's it. Thanks, Greg.

[gcode]

Wagner Group. A big Russian PMC ran by one of Putin's BFFs. They do the dirty shit Putin doesn't want his military tied to.

Yes.. these were the guys that attacked a US Marine forward artillery outpost in Syria
It did not go well for them.. Rumors are they suffered 250+ KIA in under an hour.
Of course there were no diplomatic repercussions because they were never there      

[gcode]

Where is the Russian AirForce New York Time Post

a reprint of an earlier post... with photos

[gcode]

a quote from the article above

The report also said Russia's government has lost contact with a number of its divisions that have been sent into Ukraine, meaning they had no accurate death toll.

wow..  what a fiasco ... couldn't happen to a more deserving asshole (Putin)
but I feel bad for the untrained 18 year old conscripts who are dying for Putin's arrogance

Ukraine estimates Russia's KIA's at 10K+ in 10 days of fighting

[JParis]

In the fog of war the first casuality is the truth...